Once upon a time, members of the game industry walked the Yellow Bricked Road. Laughing, they skipped and trotted forward for they believed the future to be bright.
The first was the Brainless Analyst. “If I only had a brain…”
Our expert predictions show Play Station 3 having 55% marketshare with Xbox 360 having 40% marketshare when all is said and done. Oh, the Revolution? It might get 5%… might.
The second was the Heartless Hardcore. “Someone get the oil can because my bitter tears keep hardening me.”
Damn the Waggle! I don’t want to see any funding take away from my precious hardcore games! If Microsoft and Sony follow the Wii, I will depart for PC Gaming!
The third was the Cowardly Publisher. “I am the king of the forest! Hear me roar! …but let me run away and follow everyone else first.”
Invest money in making a more traditional core game for the Wii? Are you crazy? We all know that the Wii userbase wants more mini-games and baby games. I will follow and do what everyone else is doing. Risk is bad. What do you mean I can’t be King of the Market if all I do is follow everyone else?
The fourth was the young journalist amazed at this Wonderland. “We’re not in Kansas anymore.”
Gather publishers, hardcore, and analysts, all shall be my friends! Off we go on a merry trip to the future! Heigh ho, heigh ho, off to the future we go! La la la la.
But something interesting happened on the way to the future. Everyone, publisher, hardcore, analyst, and journalist, thought the future would mimick the past. The future was supposed to be greater immersion, greater graphics, more epic games, to lead the Yellow Brick Road even further into Wonderland known as Lucid Dream Kingdom. Nintendo said they were going a different way. Alas, only two futures remained possible.
One, the premise of the ever growing industry based on more graphics and processor speed is sound which means the Xbox 360 and Play Station 3 will be successful. Based on this future, since the Wii does things opposite, the Wii does not succeed and Nintendo’s strategy is inherently flawed.
Two, the premise is that the growing industry is actually facing a shadow of decline. Much of this is because graphics and processor speeds have accelerated beyond what customers can absorb. If putting the focus on another product constraint, such as user interface, it will result in unlocking more growth than we have seen lately. Based on this future, the Xbox 360 and Play Station 3 will not be successful and their strategies are wrong. In this future, the Wii succeeds and Nintendo becomes extremely successful.
These two futures are diametrically opposed to one another. Either the traditional path is wrong or right. Either the industry is always growing or was entering the shadow of decline. It has been years since the launch, one of the two futures should reveal itself by now.
As the four merry travelers skipped about, a leprechaun appeared before them!
“Who are you?” asked the Curious Journalist.
With a green top hat and suit full of money, the leprechaun tipped his hat and said, “Why, I am the Malstrom leprechaun. I will show you the path of the rainbow that leads to the pot of gold at the other end.”
They all laughed at this. The Cowardly Publisher said, “Not taking risks is the path to the gold.” The Heartless Hardcore said, “Attacking gamers who don’t share the same taste as I is the path to the gold.” The Brainless Analyst said, “Studying currency fluctuations is the path to the gold.” The Curious Journalist said, “Quoting these three gentlemen all the time is the path to the gold.”
But Malstrom the Leprechaun wagged his finger at them. “There are only two possible futures. The first was Next Gen, the second was New Gen. Based on what has happened, which is the correct one?”
This caused some commotion. As the four debated, the Brainless Analyst stepped forward and said, “They both are! Next Gen is showing their consoles are selling and New Gen shows Nintendo has tapped into a new market.” The other three nodded in agreement.
Malstrom the Leprechaun laughed at this. “How can two opposing premises and strategies both be right? How can that even be possible?”
The Heartless Hardcore answered, “It is because we have discovered a Magical Market called Casual Gamers. Customers are annoying things. They are cantankerous and don’t move always toward the future we want. This Magical Market that we call ‘Casuals’ is like the puzzle piece with metamorphic properties that bends and shapes itself to make everything we say true.”
“In other words,” replied the leprechaun, “You WANT Next Gen to occur yet you must explain Nintendo’s success.”
“Now you are getting it,” said the Brainless Analyst. “By applying the Magical Market, we can ignore Nintendo by saying their success comes only from these magical casual gamers while we study and analyze what we want: Next Generation!”
“The Magical Market,” the Cowardly Publisher said, “allows me to support the Wii by putting out very cheap titles that mimic everyone else in cowardly herd-like thinking. Like cattle, we move as one. This Magical Market allows me to make the Next Gen games that I would rather do because it is easier to make incremental improvements via technology than to reconsider what customers want.”
“Silly leprechaun,” said the Curious Journalist, “tricks are kids. The Magical Market has allowed me to dismiss the Wii entirely since we know the Magical Market is not real, therefore the Wii cannot be real. The Magical Market is what is saving Next Generation in mind-share.”
The leprechaun nodded and smiled very big. “‘The Magical Market is what is saving Next Generation in mind-share,’” the leprechaun mocked. “Do you not see what is going on here? Instead of facing reality, instead of truly seeing that one path was RIGHT and the other path was WRONG, you have invented a Magical Market that explains the Wii’s ‘magical sales’. This allows you to omit the Wii entirely from console analysis. Now that the Wii no longer exists, you get to compare Next Gen to… itself! Thus, you can say ‘Next Gen is successful’ because you have placed the Wii into a void.”
The four covered their eyes as the leprechaun exploded. Before them now was the Wizard with a long gray beard and staff.
“It’s you!” they all exclaimed.
“Yes,” said Malstrom the Wizard. “You must come to grips that there is no magical market. There. Are. No. Casual. Gamers. As predicted, the Birdmen are falling from the sky because they never studied how to fly. When one of you try to seriously study the ‘Magical Market’, you always end up seeing what you want to see.”
“When I study the Magical Market,” says the Heartless Hardcore, “I see senior citizens in retirement homes. This is so I can better dismiss the Wii for serious gaming!”
“When I study the Magical Market,” says the Cowardly Publisher, “I see young girls. This is so I can prove to investors that my company is able to tap into the new market.”
“When I study the Magical Market,” says the Brainless Analyst, “I see older women. This is so I can safely say the Wii’s success cannot impact the Next Gen consoles.”
“When I study the Magical Market,” says the Curious Journalist, “I see idiots who fall prey to marketing schemes. This is so I can safely ignore the Wii by considering it a great market success and not a great gaming success.”
“I see, I see,” said the Wizard. “Each of you four have wanted the Industry to ‘grow up’. The path to ‘growing up’ means to no longer believe in Easter bunnies, to no longer believe in chimerical customers, in illusionary consumers, of a magical market. I should be glad enough, you may be sure, if you had really discovered a beneficent and inexhaustible being, calling itself the Magical Market, which has capital for all enterprises, credit for all projects, comfort for all bruised egos, calm for all paranoia, solutions for all doubts, diversions for all who want them, milk for infancy, and wine for old age – which can provide for all the industry’s wants, satisfy all our experimenting, correct all our errors, repair all our faults, and exempt us henceforth from the necessity for foresight, prudence, risk, creativity, and innovation.
The Wizard continued. “What reason could I have for not desiring to see such a discovery of a Magical Market made? Indeed, the more I reflect upon it, the more do i see that nothing could be more convenient than that we should all of us have within our reach an inexhaustible source of wealth and growth, an endless crop, and an unlimited treasure, such as you describe the Magical Market to be. Therefore it is that I want to have it pointed out and defined, and that a prize should be offered to the first among you who discovered this phoenix, this Magical Market.
“I will venture to say that this industry, in this respect, the dupes of one of the strangest illusions that have ever taken possession of our fear: of an industry being re-formatted into creating video games that are not video games. Growing up is scary. Video game industry will become grown up when it stops seeing itself in the video game business and more in the interactive entertainment business.”
The four looked at one another, stunned. “What is it you want us to do?”
“I want you to think of things without the aid of a Magical Market.”
They gasped. The Brainless Analyst said, “But I would have to re-examine my premises…” The Heartless Hardcore said, “But I would have to re-examine my definition of quality…” The Cowardly Publisher said, “But I would have to re-examine my marketing…” The Curious Journalist said, “But I would have to re-examine my narrative…”
“Then do so and behold the game industry growing up,” said the Wizard. “Once you stop looking at things without a Magical Market, then, and only then, can the Brainless Analyst get his brain, the Heartless Hardcore get his heart, the Cowardly Publisher get his courage, and the Curious Journalist to realize he never left Kansas. Then you will look to the New Market and say, ‘There is no place like home.’”
