Edge-Online has an interesting story on their thoughts on Nintendo’s strategy and what the future will bring. I’m not going to say too much since I’ll save that for the articles. But this story makes a very big mistake.
It is mentioned in the beginning that Nintendo’s strategy was to get out of certain demographics (misses the bigger story). And then we read this which is absolutely glaringly wrong:
The purpose of the duck is to remind the reader that analysts don’t ‘analyze’ during news stories; they merely quack. (Go Space Duck!!!)
“When Microsoft and Sony look at the battle for market-share, ” says Divnich, “ they don’t see it as a five year race or a six year race ; they see it as a thirty-year race. Both are willing to lose money in an entire generation if that means it sets them up down the road. ”
“Nintendo doesn’t look at things like that. They take each generation as almost a new race. If you look over the years, from SNES to N64 to Gamecube to Wii, you see that Nintendo taken a radically different approach each time. I mean, the PS3 has pretty much the same interface as the first Playstation, whereas the N64 and Wii are completely different ideas.”
I swear by the magic mushroom that Nintendo certainly is looking at the market in a very long-term view. The Wii will outlive the Xbox 360 and PS3. I have no doubt about that whatsoever. Already, Xbox 360 is cheaper than the Wii. Both 360 and PS3 have been price reduced and multiple colors. Wii still comes in one color, and it has never changed its price. The HD Twins are struggling with the market while Wii is sitting large (except, perhaps, Japan).
The big problem in the article is that it is written with the premise that the Core Market has a future. It does not.
And people do not buy new consoles, they buy new experiences. Since the new experience has always been processor speed and graphics, new consoles were needed. But if the new experience is interface, an upgrade requires no new console. Hello Motion Plus. And if Nintendo fixes the memory issues for the Wii, they are good for an additional five years.
The Birdmen Syndrome kept coming up in the article. The Birdmen Syndrome is declaring the new audience as ‘casuals’ and saying they are ‘dumb’. They aren’t dumb. They are just as savvy as the core gamer. They simply value different things from their games than the hardcore do.
I also become frustrated when previous generations are mentioned, the analysts only look at the Playstation generations. Why not bring up the 16-bit generation? Or the 8-bit generation? Or the Atari generation? The more data and history you use, the more fuel you have to coming up with a better conclusion.
Disruption is all about changing the equilibrium. If graphics and horsepower have overshot the mass market, then they don’t have to be upgraded. Instead, other elements can be upgraded like the controller.
What defines a generation should be the customer experience instead of hardware in a box. No one experiences the hardware. No one says, “I love those polygons.” The game industry needs to come to the realization that generations, especially with graphics reaching their peak, may no longer be defined by consoles.
As a game, I have tried to come up with ‘the most important question’ whose answer would determine the future of the game industry. Aside from questions of whether Sony and Microsoft adopting motion controllers, I think the most important question, as of this time, is: “Will Nintendo integrate motion plus into new controllers or will it always be an accessory?” This answer to a seemingly unworthy question would drastically determine the path of the game industry. We will likely find the answer to this question at E3. If the answer is integration, bam, we have entered the next generation of Wii, so to say. If motion plus stays as an accessory, then Nintendo intends for a new console to eventually come instead of upgrading the customer experience by upgrading all the controllers.
I believe motion plus will be integrated. This might be one of the reasons for the delay.
It is funny hearing everyone talk about how sick they are about buying new DS systems when there is an upgrade. Can you imagine how nice it would be if the NES, when it went to SNES, that instead of buying a new console, all you had to do was buy a new controller?
THAT is the future of Wii.
