Hi Malstrom, there are two questions that I would like to know your opinions on:
1) Are Wii gamers moving to Kinect?
2) Are DS gamers moving to IOS/Android devices?
No. There isn’t anything indicating this. Kinect currently is on the way out. You don’t hear much about it anymore for a reason.
I think what Kinect did do (that and its billion dollar marketing campaign) was to sell the Xbox 360 as a kids console to many parents. Microsoft has done one thing very well this generation: they have made a very strong inroads into the children’s market. The game I see these kids play is often a Star Wars type game (usually the Lego ones). And from there, they graduate to Call of Duty games. My nephews who are under 10 years old play Call of Duty online. Yeah.
The question you need to ask is not where do the Wii gamers go. That is the wrong way to frame the Wii gamer. The Wii gamer doesn’t NEED a video game. The Wii gamer would just revert back into a non-gamer or go back to PC gaming or something. The Wii gamer cannot be cannibalized by the Xbox 360 or PS 3 much to Microsoft and Sony’s disappointment. Both Kinect and Move were attempts to get the Wii audience and neither worked.
Are the DS players moving to iOS devices (e.g. cellphones)?
iOS devices like the iPhone or iPad are actually in the family of PC gaming. They are mobile PC gaming, more mobile than laptops.
Your question is actually, “Will console gamers move to PC gaming?” The answer to that is a clear no. It was a no back in 1984 and a no all the way up to today. iOS and all other PC gaming is not based on hardware designed for gaming. A game console doesn’t have to have spreadsheets or word processors (although the early 1980 consoles did!). PC gaming will not be able to compete with consoles and vice versa.
Interestingly, the iOS devices and traditional PC gaming share the same strength: being able to point easily on the screen (through the mouse or touch screen). While the DS and Wii can do some pointing, it is never this easy. PC gaming tends to revolve around this strength with things like strategy games. Console gaming relies more on the buttons and ‘sticks’. You can’t play a game like Tetris or Super Mario Brothers with any decency on the computer or iOS device. Why? Because they need buttons.
The ‘PC gaming will kill the console’ concept died with the NES back in the 1980s. Every analyst predicted the end of the game console because the computer was ‘so much better’. Boy, did that ever bite them in the ass.
Also, in both your questions you make an assumption that the DS and Wii gamer has to ‘move’ to something else. Why do they? It is more probable that they would revert back to their non-gamer state. This occurred with the Atari gamers and many NES gamers. It will likely occur with the DS and Wii gamers.