I’ll tell you what I love 17 days out. I love going over to the R tent and hearing, “No way Obama wins now. Romney has it in the bag.” Then, I walk over to the D tent, and I hear, “No way Romney wins now. Obama has it in the bag.” I just giggle. One of these tents is going to be wrong in 17 days. They can’t both be right. One of the realities will be shattered.
And when that happens, there will be tons of craziness. It will be Kermit Day.
Every state has different voter behavior unique to that state. In some states, R dominates early voting and Ds show up on election day. In other states, D dominates early voting and Rs show up on election day.
In Ohio, Ds dominate early voting and Rs show up on election day. In 2008, Obama had a 20 point lead in early voting in Ohio and went to win the state by 4.5 points. Today, he is at a 7 point lead in early voting in Ohio (massive decline from 2008). If trends remain constant, this would have Romney win Ohio by 5+ points.
But shhhhh. Keep this a secret between the reader and myself. Don’t let other people know. I want to see as many Kermits as possible.
One thing that people wrongly assume is that the other party is lockstep. There are huge divisions between many Rs and the GOP (which is represented in part due to the Tea Party). The reason why W. Bush got to 30% public approval is due to conservatives abandoning him. Also, the reason why Democrats controlled Congress in 2006 and 2008 was due to Democrats coming from conservative districts. 2010 is an indicator that many of those dissatisfied conservatives will be voting R this time around.
But just as the R party has its divisions, what about the D party? We’re not hearing anything about that, and I think it is the most interesting question. For example, will blacks come out in 2012 in the numbers they did in 2008? The odds are is they won’t. There are signals out there that say they may be interested in punishing the D party (meaning many might sit at home). They don’t think Obama has helped them, and his advocacy of gay marriage has repulsed them. He’s already president so him getting a second term wouldn’t be ‘making history’. Just blacks having an ever so slightly reduced turnout would have a major shift in many, many states.
Another question to ask is about the other traditional D coalition groups. Will they appear in 2012 at the same level as 2008?