Posted by: seanmalstrom | October 21, 2012
Email: Why Ryan helps MN R’s
It’s simply due to population distribution – the Twin Cities area (which nearly comprises half of the entire population of the state) is already very close to the Wisconsin border as it is (it’s only a 15 minute drive from the 694 highway at the edge of the main metropolitan area), and there is rather dense population all throughout along that border (it is a river). As a result, there is a lot of commuters between both states, and there are many Minnesotans with strong Wisconsin ties…. if Ryan has a positive effect on his home state, then he’ll also bring a small effect over to MN as well (which may be all that is needed to swing the typically divided MN, especially since the area he’ll be impacting is the D stronghold).
Yes, MN does have strange voting patterns. However, Al Franken won when the R base was particularly depressed (in 2008) and only by 312 votes, which is an incredibly slim margin (and there have been many screams of fraud within the D districts). Ventura is a native of MN and was a successful mayor in the metropolitan area before running for Governor as a third party candidate – coupled with the fact that he spun a campaign that leaned conservative and you had all you needed to win the election. So strange, yes – but explainable. All the more reason I’m sure why U of C is predicting MN to go R in more than 4 decades.
Interesting. You might find it funny that I hear from the ‘R Tent’ of exclamations of MN. “Who’d thought this could be in play?” “What is up with MN?” “No, forget about MN.” And then they go talking about OH, PA, or NH and don’t mention MN ever again. The R Tent would be more surprised if MN went R than if Oregon went R.
Given the latest news of Romney campaign moving NC staffers into PA and starting to do appearances in the state, I decided to walk by the two tents to hear what they were saying.
R Tent: “This is a sign of strength. The Romney Campaign thinks they are secured enough in VA, FL, and NC to move on to PA. In PA, Romney can fly back and forth to OH quickly. It shows that Romney Campaign thinks they have won it and are now moving to the humiliation factor.”
D Tent: “This is a sign of desperation. Obviously losing OH, VA, and in trouble in FL, the Romney Campaign is doing a last ditch ‘Hail Mary’ pass into PA. We know how well that worked for McCain. This election is over.”
Clearly, one of the tents exists in an Alternate Reality as both realities cannot exist. Which is the alternate reality?