It was a sad day in Game Journalism when a piece by John Davidson stating that a new Wii would be coming out at 2011, based entirely on speculation, was quoted everywhere. Let’s go through the sources.
The primary source was…
heard from multiple sources in the game development and publishing community that Nintendo is currently showing early presentations of its next home console hardware. Apparently set to hit the market “by 2011” the new device is said to be the true “next generation” Nintendo console, and far more than a simple refresh of the current hardware. Unlike previous console transitions from Nintendo, the new system will be presented as a true successor to the Wii, and is being dubbed by those that have seen the presentation as “Wii HD.” There is no indication if this will be its eventual name, but the nature of the transition has been characterized as similar to “the shift from Game Boy to Game Boy Advance,” where familiar, key elements were left intact while the core hardware was made more powerful. It is expected by all those that we have spoken to on the subject that the new device will retain the Wii name in part.
While our sources are reluctant to be too specific about “Wii HD,” they have been able to divulge some (albeit predictable) generalizations. High definition visuals are assured, as is a greater emphasis on digitally distributed and backwardly compatible content, indicating that the new system will feature some form of local storage medium such as a hard drive or large flash memory solution. It has also been indicated that Nintendo’s emphasis is again on what the consumer will hold in their hands and interact with, rather than the “console” itself.
It is no secret that the next Nintendo console will be HD. Iwata said so himself not soon after the annoucement that ‘Revolution’ would not be HD. When you consider that the HD Twins are nearing the affordable $200 price range in 2008, a HD capable console would be very doable in 2011. Common sense, alone, says that the next Nintendo console will have more storage space, even have more ram. What would be news is that the next console only to have 512 mb of flash memory (which I doubt anyone would sell to Nintendo due to how fast such memory prices are falling).
It is also not news that Nintendo is working on a new console. As is the practice of the console manufacturers, once one console goes out, work on the next one begins. It wouldn’t really be news that Nintendo approaches various developers and publishers about their reactions to the graphical and engine direction Nintendo is going.
The problem is that the story is treating these publishers’ speculations as a reliable source. Third party publishers are not objective bystanders to the console manufacturers. They have their interests and biases. Many game developers, as have been revealed lately, are biased to the ‘hardcore’ and look at the expanded market as a ‘waste of their time’. Their speculations are more opinions.
Publishers are biased toward the multiplatform ideal. They already can port their games to Xbox 360, PlayStation 3, and to the PC. But Wii, alas, cannot easily be ported to. Publishers would love nothiing else but to have a so-called “Wii-HD” appear where they can easily port to that too. All of the publishers’ speculations on “Wii-HD”, which is embarrasingly reported here as a factual source, is nothing more than publishers’ wet dream. It is like a gaming message forum having a wet dream about the ‘next console’ which would be even more graphics, has every multimedia feature ever existed, and, oh yeah, costs $199.
A red flag should have been the ‘assertion’ that Nintendo will release the new console in 2011. Right after E3 2008, Iwata was publicly mocking Sony’s assertion of the ‘ten year plan’ by saying it is customers and software that define the life of the hardware, not the technology inside it. There is absolutely no internal plan to create a new console by 2011 just ‘because’. A new console might appear there but will emerge when consumers tire of the Wii or when competitors jumpstart their new consoles.
Look at what was reported from publishers and game developers talking about ‘Revolution’ before it was released. Much of the talk was more about how they wanted it to be, rather than what it was. This is why third parties’ speculations need to be considered unreliable. But most of all, their speculations should never be considered ‘fact’.
Saying that Nintendo is displaying a HD prototype to third parties is all good and fine. But the problem with the story is that it not only asserts, and creates a headline, that says ‘Wii HD by 2011′, it then cherry picks information to bolster that claim.
We hear about Nintendo raising its research and development costs. Considering that the cashflow of the company has greatly increased from the Gamecube era, and considering that the research and development have a much harder time for the post-Wii console than the post-Gamecube console, it is not news that Nintendo is raising its research and development costs. But when looked at even critically, such information contradicts publishers’ speculation. Why raise such research costs if the plan is to just make a Wii HD console that is like the Gameboy Color? A Wii HD would not justify those costs. However, a new disruptive console would.
Nintendo has proven it can be extremely successful by leveraging processor technology that is not on the bleeding edge, and be more profitable and more innovative as a result. In a 2006 interview with Business Week, Nintendo visionary Shigeru Miyamoto stated, “The consensus [at Nintendo] was that power isn’t everything for a console. Too many powerful consoles can’t coexist. It’s like having only ferocious dinosaurs. They might fight and hasten their own extinction.” Based on our conversations about “Wii HD” this attitude would seem to still prevail.
Miyamoto’s quote is a very much ‘Red Ocean’ statement of products competing around similar values (such as power). “Wii HD”, in the sense that it is nothing more than a Wii with HD capabilties, is actually the opposite to this quote. The Wii did not succeed because of upgraded visuals. So why in the hell would Nintendo make a new console with upgraded visuals as its only new element? The disruption strategy is about the HD Twins overshooting customer needs with graphics and power that most customers could not absorb. Miyamoto quote refers to the consoles that pursue only upgraded power and visuals as ‘dinosaurs’ which suggests that way is to go extinct. This matches Nintendo’s behavior and statements about creating products based on new values such as interaction.This is nothing but rampant speculation.
Many of these stories and, even analyst, speculations on the new Wii come across to me as dishonest. It shows a lack of understanding about Nintendo (when has Nintendo EVER released a new model of the same home console outside the NES 2? [and that was due to the cartridge slot error]). Much of these stories sound like someone is carrying someone else’s FUD. There are certain console companies which would love to put out the idea that “Don’t buy a Wii because a new one is right around the corner.”
But my biggest problem is that it insults the intelligence of the audience. Wii systems are still sold out in the United States. Colored Wii systems have not even come out yet. Yet, they want to assert when the new Wii is coming out? Get out of here!
The current Wii hardware is based upon processors and graphics technology supplied by IBM and AMD. These two companies have a joint development agreement together, which is described by AMD as being focused “on delivering a range of integrated platforms to serve key markets, including … gaming and media computing.”
The joint development agreement between IBM and AMD expires on December 31, 2011 but “may be extended further by the mutual agreement of the parties.” This suggests that Nintendo will be leveraging research and development from the partnership in time to ensure that it’s new hardware will be compatible with the Wii’s current “Hollywood” and “Broadway” processors. As Microsoft learned in the transition from Xbox to Xbox 360, switching hardware vendors can make running older games on a new system a much more difficult proposition.