I seriously wonder whether Don Mattrick believed what he said when talking about controllers being intimidating and breaking that barrier. That speech meant something back in 2006 when the Wiimote didn’t exist as a product, but now? I know this industry has a tendency to think its new customers are retarded, but to suggest that a very simple TV remote with an appealing Apple-like look isn’t accessible enough strikes me as insulting. If Mattrick is saying this, he’s also implying that the DS isn’t accessible enough, because there is a controller on that too.
Why are you torturing yourself? Don’t try to make sense of what Microsoft is saying in comparison to recent history. You will only give yourself a painful headache. Microsoft does not make sense because the company is playing a very different game than most companies.
Microsoft doesn’t play by the same rules any other console company does. They can blow up billions of dollars, and it is OK because they have tons of money. Gullible people will still write how Microsoft is ‘incredible at business’, due to the money made bundling its operating system with cheap hardware, even though Microsoft ate billions of dollars on a freaking game console. Microsoft can say, “Look at this amazing commercial we made! With our new device (which we will never say how much it costs or when it will be released), we are now in the sci-fi future!”, and they get away with it because Microsoft likes people to think they are in the technology business.
With the Sony ‘wand’, I thought it was pretty cool but years behind the Wii (in becoming a product, not technology). But Microsoft’s ‘natal’ is a completely different story. There are two main issues I see with it.
The first is the FUD, the blatant marketing maneuver of a super slick commercial for a ‘tech demo’ that wasn’t even demoed on the live floor. This approach has worked for Microsoft very well in the computer industry (which is dominated by Windows OS). But the game industry is very different. People in the game industry are very suspicious and skeptical when someone says “all gaming will change!” because we hear it all the time. No one believed the Wii-mote until the sales happened and even then people were still calling it a fad.
Microsoft doesn’t respect the game industry and its customers. They don’t care if your console breaks and denied it as long as possible until they couldn’t. Their solution to the hardware problem was not to re-make a console so it wouldn’t have that hardware problem but to throw billions of dollars at it. (At the time, some Xbox fans said the red ring of death failures showed that the Xbox 360 was the new NES. That’s right. I asked, how? They said it was because the Famicom originally had problems, and the NES had the bent pins. Yet, Nintendo recalled the original Famicom, and they did come out with a NES 2 remodel which is totally not what happened with the Xbox 360.) So while you call to get your 360 repaired, you are talking to some guy in India who cannot speak English correctly. With all these billions, Microsoft is cheapening out on customer support. Why? Apparently, customers are not the priority.
I have no doubt that Microsoft thought, after Natal was shown, we all would be on our hands and knees thanking the Microsoft god for showing us the future. They probably thought everyone wouldn’t even care about Nintendo or Sony. The viral messengers, that many people caught, basically said how they wanted us to think: “Microsoft has won this generation! OMG!!!” “No matter what Nintendo or Sony show now, they cannot compete!” “Microsoft has shown how we are going to live in the 21st century! It is like science fiction but in real life! OMG!”
As a salesman, I love marketing in general. But I hate false marketing. I hate reading game sites and not knowing if I am reading a genuine opinion or someone’s paid marketing. This FUD is to information as malware is to an operating system. I don’t care if someone has a different opinion. I just wish it was a genuine opinion, no matter what it was, instead of some ‘underground’ advertisement. This is one thing I hope the game industry, its websites and message forums can clean up.
This is the first issue of Natal that reveals how easily Microsoft thinks the game industry can be manipulated.
The second issue is the after-effects. When you reveal something at E3, you better be sure it will launch. All three console companies made this mistake at this E3: Nintendo with the Vitality Sensor, Sony with its ‘wand’, and Microsoft, most especially, with ‘natal’. I have no doubt the Vitality Sensor and even ‘wand’ will come out in some form. But Natal is a different story.
Natal will become an albatross around Microsoft’s neck. Unlike the computer industry, where Microsoft never gets asked to why their product suddenly is missing features or is pushed back for a decade, everyone will be asking where Natal is. Since Natal will not be released next year, it will be pushed back, and people will want to know why. Microsoft will just give an answer while pretending the hand they are holding is better than it is. “Just you wait, we have tons of games in preparation for Natal. It is going to be amazing!”
When it does come out, after Microsoft cannot delay it any longer, it will be mediocre and received poorly. Its release will be done very quietly. Then, Microsoft can just come up with another commercial to show that ‘the future’ is right around the corner.
The games industry is a consumer driven market. Microsoft cannot hide who it is like they could in the computer industry. People are, rightfully, going to expect Natal to become a product at some point. Three possibilities ensue:
1) It doesn’t become a product. People realize Microsoft was lying.
2) It becomes a mediocre product that no one buys. People realize Microsoft was lying.
3) It becomes the greatest thing since sliced bread. While this is a possibility, when was the last time this happened with anything Microsoft made? Exactly.
Hype is a double edged sword. It can create buzz, but it can also kill a reputation. Microsoft made a huge deal about Natal. They *have* to make it now. If they cancel it or it does not ‘change gaming as we know it’, they become Fonzie jumping the shark. After Fonzie jumped the shark, everything on Happy Days was seen as ridiculous.
To me, Microsoft has always been ridiculous, but I’ve been following them before they entered the console business. I remember the huge hype behind Longhorn which became Vista (and what a joke Vista was. Half a decade of development for THAT?). Many in the games industry, especially the consumers, aren’t familiar with that. The Red Ring of Death and Phone-Calls-To-India woke some people up as to what Microsoft is all about. But some, it will take Natal.
I think Microsoft is going to regret Natal.
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