Light at End of HD Tunnel is Disruption Train

Choo! Choo! Here comes the disruption train!

From Rob Fahey’s latest column:

The spectacle we’re watching, then, is not just a battle to the death between two financially exhausted gladiators – it’s a battle to the death in an arena whose walls are slowly closing in. Fuelled by a combination of determination and sheer hubris, Microsoft and Sony have spent enormous amounts of money on this generation of hardware, and are now desperate to claw it back, even at the cost of some market share. Yet the market they’re competing for is in some senses smaller than it was before, hammered by everything from the Wii and the iPhone to casual games on Facebook or the success of World of Warcraft – each of which, in some way, pulls consumers away from the high-end next-gen consoles.

This phenomenon is disruption. It is the low end, or rather multiple low ends, eating away at the profitable and more prestigious high end.

Even if Nintendo didn’t go with the Wii and went a HD console route, they would be hit by disruption coming in from other sides. As Reggie plainly said back in 2006, the company has one of two choices: disrupt or be disrupted.

Note how Nintendo will not let anyone get below the ‘low end’ than they are. If you thought the DS and DS ‘Touch Generation’ games were low end, behold DS Ware which is below that. Now look at DS Ware Indie that Nintendo just announced. Brain Age is beginning to look like a freaking epic game these days compared to all this.

Nintendo appears to be responding to Sony throughout this generation. The launch of the Wii was timed to coincide with the launch of the PlayStation 3. Miyamoto even said that when Sony launches ‘does’ matter to Nintendo. Bizarrely, Nintendo has even responded to Sony’s foray into User-Generated Content. with their own. Nintendo seems to respond to every move Sony makes.

So it follows that Nintendo will be putting out a new console once Sony does.