It took me a while but I finally read your Birdman article. Very nice article by the way.
One of the things I’m having trouble understanding is the concept of customers moving upmarket. For instance, I believe you stated that Nintendo can (or maybe it was must) move all of these expanded audience members upmarket with more difficult or complex titles such as Mario Kart Wii.
But when you’re moving customers upmarket, isn’t there always going to be some sort of attrition rate attached? My grandmother, for instance, loves Wii Sports but can probably never progress to a more difficult title. She either doesn’t possess the skills or the interest to do so. I doubt I could ever get her to even play a 2D Mario game. So what would Nintendo do in her case? Release more Wii Sports games?
What does the Blue Ocean company do if it can’t move certain consumers upmarket?
Moving upmarket is a disruptive context, not Blue Ocean.
It was put into “Birdman” because it was the belief, at the time, that Wii would make nothing but ‘casual’ games. But the idea of a disruptive product is for it to develop its disruptive properties and flesh them out more. As it gets better, it would attract customers who thought the earlier incarnations were “not good enough”.
Our friends, the hardcore, did not like Wii Sports. They called it ‘waggle’. With Wii Sports Resort and Motion Plus, many of them are finding the game very favorable. You don’t hear any jokes about ‘waggle’ anymore with Motion Plus (though this could also be due to Sony and Microsoft putting out their own motion controls).
People are very anxious to explore game content through motion controls. The Wii avalanche wasn’t just about Wii Sports but also what the future of the Wii could hold.
Upmarket isn’t about taking the very lowest tier of customer use and uplifting them to become a hardcore gamer. Disruption is about learning to love the low end of the market and then improving on that value which increasingly begins to attract the prestige customers.
Grandma doesn’t have to move beyond Wii Sports. (But she might, and that is important.) As Wii games increase more and more with their disruptive capability, more and more of the upper market (the hardcore) become attracted to the Wii.
For example, you don’t hear any complaining that Zelda Wii will use motion controls extensively. Zelda fans, who are pretty hardcore, would, instead, be furious if Zelda DIDN’T have that type of motion control swordfighting and all. Those early adopters bought the Wii dreaming of such a Zelda.
Many of the Expanded Market could very well graduate to Zelda Wii. So not only would Zelda Wii get the traditional Zelda fans, it would get new Expanded Market members. Mario Kart Wii is a good example of this occurring. No Mario Kart has sold as Mario Kart Wii is selling. Where did all these new customers come from?
Speaking about 2d Mario, how in the hell did NSMB DS sell 20 million copies? It wasn’t based on children and Nintendo fans. People who bought the DS for Brain Age or Nintendogs graduated to Mario Kart DS or NSMB DS.
Getting all of the Expanded Market to move upmarket isn’t the goal. The problem with gaming is that there was a freaking brick wall between new gamers and current gamers. With the Wii, Nintendo was dismantling this freaking brick wall. The controller with its many buttons was replaced with the Wii-mote and its intuitive way of controlling games (pointing and moving the controller around). Software was changed so the lower market could enjoy it.
It is my belief that the Industry changes but the potential game customers do not. Simple and fun games from Pong to Tanks to Super Mario Brothers were no longer made. Only complicated 3d games were made. The low end of the market was untapped and there were many people there who were wanting to play but couldn’t. The “Game Industry”, in its infinite wisdom, thought ‘simple games’ were simple because they were primitive. To be modern, games had to be complicated. This was absurd, and it created a freaking big brick wall as well as a moat that circled gaming. Aside from children growing up, new gamers weren’t entering the market. And since population growth was turning to population decline in several markets, relying on more and more children and teenagers won’t work anymore.
When Nintendo exploded that freaking big brick wall, a flood of customers came roaring in and that is why the Wii was sold out in America for several years.
Microsoft, at least, and Sony likely detect the long term disruptive threat that Nintendo is doing and are moving to counterattack it with their own motion controls. That brings us to the “Sword” and “Shield” of the disruptor which has their own articles detailing that.
The plan for the HD Twins was to release at their high price points, get the ‘hardcore’ and most prestigous customers, rely on declining technology costs to lower the prices, and gain more and more users with their ever expanding game library. This has been the pattern for almost all game consoles.
But something funny happened on the way to Next Generation. Wii appeared and, instead of targeting the hardcore, it aimed at the low/new market (as well as core Nintendo fans). As the Wii games become more sophisticated with New Generation’s values, the old values become a niche. Sony and Microsoft’s entire vision has been messed up by the Wii. They have been disrupted.
Second red line is the Wii. First red line is the HD Twins. HD twins HAVE to change their trajectory if they don’t want to leave the console market.
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