Email: Three Questions

Dear Malstrom,

I have been reading your blog and you have been very insightful.  I have a few questions that I hope you will answer.

1.  Do you think that the push for user generated content is over?  It failed Nintendo and Will Wright.  Little Big Planet had a sequel planned but recently the developers said that there wont be one.

In terms for the “Game Industry”? Probably. In terms for Miyamoto? No. The Old Man is a True Believer in The Mission of Creativity. Unfortunately, no one at Nintendo has questioned whether Miyamoto’s perception of “creativity” is even valid. He’s been reusing the same game universes that were made over twenty years ago. Even minor Hollywood movie directors go onto something new by this time.

The next article up (will go in Casual Division) will square directly into “creativity”. “Creativity” is a very modern word that did not exist a century or two ago. It is very shocking to see the true origin of the phrase. I expect the article to be very controversial.

2.  You said that if user generated content would have worked for games it would have also been successful in other mediums.  Are lego bricks a form of user generated content?    Children can build what ever they want with a box of lego bricks(I am talking about regular bricks not the sets where one can build a specific building or Stars Wars space ship).   I agree that UGC is BS I want my games to be designed by profesional developers, any user generated levels wont be half as good as one made by a developer.

I don’t agree with the analogy. Blocks are just blocks, just as boards and hammers and nails are what they are. A better analogy would be children melting and making their own Hot Wheels cars (which did exist and did not sell well).

The first “User Generated Content” game came out in 1983 called “Pinball Construction Kit”. The ‘kit’ word is very important. Do you go through life buying ‘kits’? No, I suspect you want the product all ready made.

You can see the problems with ‘User Generated Content’ as that phrase is so vague and vacuous that people are pointing to anything that can be manipulated and reformed as ‘User Generated Content’ such as legos. Kids prefer to play with a big cardboard box and use their imagination to turn it into different things, even cut holes in it and all. Are cardboard boxes ‘User Generated Content’ now? The question alone shows the silliness that the conversation is of UGC.

Just because imagination is used to put the product in a different context does not make it UGC. A kid using his action heroes to create an exciting story of good guys attacking the bad guys fortified on the dresser is not creating ‘content’.

I always thought those Micro Machines were cool. Remember those little city blocks where you could re-arrange and make a little metropolis?

User Generated Content = Amateur Product. A kid playing with legos is not making an amateur product. If Lego came out with a kit the kid could melt and make his own legos, that would be more User Generated Content.

3.  If Nintendo continues disrupting and the games industry continues its current practice of screwing over consumers, hyping up games that can’t live up to the hype and working deals with journalists,  how long do you think it will take for the industry to die?

It depends on what you mean by ‘dying’? If you mean becoming niche, then very, very soon. If you mean the hype business, then that works only as long as the Core Market is around.

We have to look at the past to get the sense of speed in the change. Three years has passed since the Wii was launched. Five years has passed since the DS was launched. Remember what was said prior and during those system launches.

The good news is that the “Game Industry” wants nothing to do with the Wii and is tying their boat to the PS3 and Xbox 360 future. This will temporarily boost the HD Twins, but ultimately they will sink together. I don’t see Sony or Microsoft escaping from their disruptive box.

I think the big problem will occur once the successor to the HD Twins are put out. The game companies cannot rely on graphics anymore so what else do they have left? The Internet? They expect consumers to only rent their games and not own them? Have they seen the sales of the PSP Go?

So I guess maybe five years or so?

Just look at the massive sea change that has occurred in only three years.

One of the things the newspapers did, before they entered the long shadow of decline, was telling the customer the way how it is. When customers would complain about something, the newspapers responded, “You are too stupid to understand things.” Newspapers became a business where they ignored everything the consumer said. Now, the newspapers are reaping what they sowed.

The “Game Industry” has not entered that level until just recently. Modern Warfare 2 was the “Game Industry” telling customers how what they say doesn’t matter anymore. I’ve never seen Activision apologists try so hard to say how Modern Warfare 2’s sales show that the backlash is having no effect. Newspapers did the same exact thing. What I see is that the backlash is beginning the seeds. The full plant and then tree will not be obvious until many years from now. The “Game Industry” is also ignoring customers by going digital distribution. “We don’t want this,” say the customers. They get the response only of, “Too bad! That is the way it is going to be.”

The “Game Industry” is going to get what is coming to them. The Music Industry thought they were invincible and would last forever. Look what happened to them. The Movie Industry thought they were invincible and would last forever. No see what they have become? And the “Game Industry” is far more vulnerable than they are.

This depends entirely on Nintendo pursuing “Revolution” and keeping to the strategy of disruption. If Nintendo abandons this strategy, such as making a Wii HD, it will show that Nintendo has no interest in “Revolution” and wishes only to be king of the “Game Industry”. It will put Nintendo in the “Game Industry” camp which means they will become an enemy to gaming. You either go the direction of the gamers or you go the direction of the “Game Industry”. The two are no longer the same. The Wii explosion occurred precisely, as well as the advocacy for the little white console, because people perceived Nintendo ‘attacking’ the “Game Industry”.

To All: I’m still going through the emails. Be patient.