NPD August 2010

360 – 356,700
DS -342,700
Wii – 244,300
PS3 -226,000
PSP – 79,400

1. Madden NFL 11 (Electronic Arts, Xbox 360) — 920,800
2. Madden NFL 11 (Electronic Arts, PlayStation 3) — 893,600
3. Super Mario Galaxy 2 (Nintendo, Wii) – 124,600
4. Mafia II (Take 2 Interactive, Xbox 360) — 121,600
5. New Super Mario Bros. (Nintendo, DS) — 110,400
6. Super Mario Bros. 5 (Nintendo, Wii)
7. Mafia II (Take 2 Interactive, PS3)
8. Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 (Activision Blizzard, Xbox 360)
9. NCAA Football 11 (Electronic Arts, Xbox 360)
10. Wii Fit Plus (Nintendo)

The leader in the market is Disinterest in Gaming. People used to look at the fall of the Japanese market and say, “That could never happen here!” But what have they to say now?

Let’s look at the software. The football games are, of course, seasonal. Mafia II was a recent release, expect it to disappear from the chart next month. What I placed in bold is the interesting software. This is all software that is almost a year old or in NSMB DS’s case, it is over four years old!

A reader might look at these numbers and say, “Say, that 2d Mario is selling very consistently and very strongly. We should expect more 2d Mario to come for Nintendo’s next hardware.” And I would laugh at the reader. I will channel Miyamoto through the Pacific:

“I don’t feel like making those games anymore. I’ll just keep making 3d Mario even though it doesn’t sell hardware. Expect another 2d Mario 18 years from now.”

The purpose of first party hardware is to keep selling the hardware. Galaxy 2 has been unsuccessful in that mission. In America, when NSMB DS and Mario 5 were released, the DS and Wii hardware sold out. Judging from previous behavior of Nintendo, we should expect to see Super Mario Galaxy 3, 4, 5, and Sunshine 2 and, a couple of decades from now, perhaps see another 2d Mario game. Maybe.

Continued sales for Modern Warfare 2 show interest in gaming has generally collapsed as gamers are gravitating to one or a few games. I think it is the case that gamers do not find other games to be ‘quality’. (Note that I said ‘quality’ and not ‘value’.) With economic times being bad, the tolerance of gamers for mediocrity is going down which is why we see gamers huddling around a few games. For example, a PC gamer could buy Starcraft 2 and ignore every other game. Blizzard’s games haven’t really degraded in quality as many other game companies have (And to nitpicking Blizzard fans who dispute this, remember Blizzard’s once RTS rival of the Command and Conquer series and see how much that has fallen). Gamers love well made games. It is as simple as that. If game companies wish to save money, fire the marketing consultants who whisper jibber jabber. Aim for quality with their games. Good games sell.

When the Wii was released, it reminded me of during the NES Golden Age. So much potential. So much sales. The Wii reminds me now of the end of the SNES Era. Declining sales. Donkey Kong Country. And the 3DS is giving me deja vu of the N64. I can’t see how the 3DS can possibly be as successful as the DS.

What software does the Wii have that will help it? There is Donkey Kong Country 4, of course. I cannot imagine that game not doing anything. There is Kirby Epic Yarn which I expect to be largely ignored (as most Kirby games are). Wii Party will perform like Mario Party on steroids. But the big question mark is Epic Mickey.

The strengths of Epic Mickey is that its content appeals to high standard gamers, women, and children. The ‘hardcore’ third party software always failed because it never appealed to children or women, two important parts of the Wii install base.

Epic Mickey is also being carried by very strong financial and marketing arms of Disney. This game will be advertised.

And then there is Warren Specter.

But for the weaknesses of the game, there is also Warren Specter. Trip Hawkins said to Specter that he liked ‘Garriot’s ideas’ because “Garriot thought big” (like Ultima Online big) while Specter was said to be satisfied just making a good game that didn’t become a blockbuster. Specter’s games have never been huge best sellers. Warren Specter is a PC game maker and these skills may not translate well to a console video game experience.

Epic Mickey is also entirely single player. Almost every Wii hit has been a multiplayer title.

So how will it do? We’ll just have to see.

“But Malstrom! Malstrom!” a reader calls from beyond the stage. “You forgot about a game that will boost Wii sales REAL BIG.”

And what game is that, dear reader? Oh, do but tell me.

“Everyone will rush to buy a Wii in order to experience Metroid: Other M!”

Hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahhahah adg;heihdfgkdhtga I’m laughing too hard…. I cannot continue this post any longer…. You are too much for me reader…