But I can see an overpriced handheld!
A short but to the point email!
The 3d effects of the 3DS wouldn’t be so much an issue if it didn’t demand an expensive screen. The minimum price for the 3DS is going to be $200+. The microphone on the DS wasn’t used much and wasn’t too highly valued by consumers but it didn’t matter since that feature didn’t drive up the cost of the DS by any significant margin. Just as HD displays were an anchor that slowed momentum of the HD twins and kept the price tag high, I think the 3d screen will make it much harder for the 3DS to gain momentum due to the higher price tag.
Another bad side effect is that the 3d screen (and since consumers have paid much money for it), game companies will feel pressured to only make 3d games. This becomes a problem because the job of a handheld console is to play games on the run. 3D games tend to be ‘too immersive’ and ‘too longer’ for portable play. There is serious risk of overshooting the market.
I think consumers respond to consoles based on the generalized job they do for entertainment. If all the best games are on one console, everyone will buy that console because that console does the job of entertainment the best. Nintendo seems to be going at the console design as if the purpose of the hardware was to create a unique entertainment experience. However, I think consumers prefer hardware to fulfill a job of generalized entertainment for its role.
Look at why the DS outsold the PSP. The DS did not outsell the PSP because it had a touchscreen and the PSP didn’t. The DS outsold the PSP because the DS performed the generalized job of portable gaming better than the PSP did.
In the same way, the Wii outsold its competitors because it performed the generalized job of what a home console should do (living room entertainment) better. Motion controls were a means to that end. It was not the end in itself.
It seems as if Nintendo has taken the wrong lesson from the DS and Wii and believe success is in a unique experience instead of focusing on the better generalized job of the console. The N64 and Gamecube did provide a unique experience compared ot its competitors. But no one would argue they did a better performance in the generalized job consumers want their consoles to do (because the PlayStations just had a much vaster game library).
An example is the Augmented Reality of the 3DS. Yes, that is a ‘unique experience’. But do I want my portable console to do that? There are so many ‘doodads’ on the 3DS that I cannot keep track of them all.
Keep in mind I am not saying ‘3DS will sell badly.’ What I’m saying is that there are visible storm clouds. I don’t see how Nintendo can get around major obstacles like the price issue. I expect the 3DS to be a decline from the DS in sales.