Just look at the enthusiasm from these launch day buyers
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When the 7th Generation began, every console manufacturer was trying to do the ‘worldwide launch’. Apparently, they had their egos tied into it. PSP launch in Europe was delayed, but DS was launched worldwide I believe. PSP began to outsell the DS in Japan and North America. Reporters spoke of this to Reggie Fils-aime, and he replied that the DS was outselling the PSP worldwide (hahaha). The reporter responded, “But the PSP hasn’t launched in Europe yet.” Reggie then shrugged and said, “Hey, not my problem!”
In 2005, when the Xbox 360 launched, Microsoft also tried to do a worldwide launch. The launch in Japan was somewhat disastrous. In fact, a disaster must have occurred in the production because Microsoft began having problems producing the systems even in North America. Reggie even commented on this saying something must have gone wrong with their manufacturing. Since Microsoft was so eager to put out press releases that stated ‘Xbox 360 first one to 10 million sold!’ (because the first one to 10 million was, supposedly, the one to win the console war), Microsoft stuffed the retail chain with tons of Xbox 360 systems. In the most hilarious fashion, a hardware problem with the Xbox 360 would cause the system to overheat and have the ‘red ring of death’ resulting in Microsoft to spend over a billion dollars just in warranty coverage.
Sony also did a worldwide PS3 launch. But I believe they had troubles manufacturing enough systems (as a worldwide launch would spread out all available systems). So with the initial systems of the PS3 sold out, Sony wrote self-congratulating press releases declaring how popular their system was. But when more shipments of PS3 came in, they were not selling out, and Sony looked foolish.
Wii had a worldwide launch as well. It was the reason why only 500,000 units found their way to North America. But the Wii was sold out in the United States for three years (no matter how much Nintendo produced).
So with the 7th Generation as a reference point, what to make of the 3DS launch?
Nintendo decided to forgo the ego of a worldwide launch and focus on launching with as much hardware as available. I suspect this is to remove the Ebay scalpers but mostly to make sure no sales are lost. (When your product is sold out, you are actually losing sales.) So the 3DS was launched in Japan first. And later, it would launch in Europe and North America (and Australia too, cannot forget about you guys). 3DS was also delayed from a holiday launch so Nintendo would have enough units.
When Amazon boasted that they had twice the pre-orders for the 3DS than they did for the Wii, to the observer this would sound like the 3DS would be even more popular than the Wii. But pre-orders are not an indicator of demand, they are only an indicator of manufacturing. The reason why there are more pre-orders for the 3DS than the Wii is because more 3DS units are available at launch.
Here is a question I want to ask everyone:
“Why did Nintendo run into big problems with the N64 and Gamecube, while the handhelds remained healthy?”
One answer we get is because of lack of competition. So when Sony appeared with the PSP, all the analysts were writing Nintendo’s tombstone. And for a while, the PSP was outselling the DS. But then something happened and the DS vastly outsold the PSP.
Another answer we get is because handheld devices require a more integrated hardware/software approach. Handhelds cannot be a dumbed down PC as the Sony and Microsoft consoles are (which is why Microsoft has wisely stayed away from the handheld gaming market entirely). So is it Nintendo’s integrated hardware and software DNA that keeps its handhelds afloat? If so, then why didn’t it work for the home consoles? Wii clearly did well. So why didn’t the N64 and Gamecube?
Iwata would argue the N64 and Gamecube did not embrace the hardware and software integration in order to create differentiation from Nintendo’s competitors. Iwata would also argue that the N64 and Gamecube came out a year later than the PlayStations which caused all the developers to begin working on the PlayStations. This was why Wii launched exactly when the PS3 did.
So from Nintendo’s point of view, the 3DS should be a smash success. The console is not late. The console is utilizing the hardware/software integration to create differentiation. So what’s the deal? The 3DS is doing everything different from the N64/Gamecube, right?
But from my perspective, being of that lowly peasant-like customer, the 3DS comes across as the reincarnation of the N64/Gamecube. The 3DS is pushing me away just as the N64 did. What I see is the 3DS saying, “You should buy me for the OMG 3d effects!” This is what the N64 and Gamecube said as well. “OMG! It is Mario… in 3D! OMG! It is Luigi’s Mansion… in 3D! Just look at the texture on that cloth! Incredible!”
Come to think of it, the movie studios recently came to me and said, “You must watch Avatar! OMG!” I replied, “Why should I watch Avatar? Is it a good movie?” “That does not matter! All that matters is that it is in 3d!” Really, now? “Yes! You must watch all these 3d movies coming out! It is because they are in 3d! Go go go!” Once the hype settled, the mass market realized 3d movies weren’t really that interesting and all it was doing is raising the price of movie tickets.
Why did the movie industry make this mistake? I believe it is for the same exact reason Nintendo made this mistake (for Nintendo has been obsessed with 3d far before movie studios embraced it recently).
It is because they do not understand the true reason why Star Wars sold.
Nintendo’s business strategy is not really Blue Ocean Strategy or Disruption. Nintendo’s business strategy is actually ‘Star Wars’. The ‘surprise’ Iwata is so fond of mentioning is referring to the ‘surprise’ of when Star Wars appeared and excited people about movies.
Doesn’t it annoy you, the Nintendo consumer, of buying the same exact Nintendo games with no change in the content but some new gameplay doodad? For example, Zelda Wii will be the exact same Zelda game you’ve played but now the puzzles will be ‘motion controller based’. A new Zelda on the 3DS would be puzzles to be ‘3d output’ based. All this is because Nintendo follows the ‘Star Wars’ prescription for entertainment. It must make the player say ‘wow’.
But aside from the fluke of the DS/Wii, which were designed when Nintendo’s future was seriously in doubt, Nintendo’s overall trajectory has been further and further decline. And the reason for this decline is due to Nintendo’s games.
What Nintendo has to do is question whether their Star Wars mentality for entertainment is the correct one. This will be truly difficult because Miyamoto and Iwata have never questioned this mentality before. Currently, the movie industry has to be very confused why their special effects no longer seem special. The answer was because the audience never showed up for the special effects.
Like movies, video games do not need to have ‘special effects’. They just need to be ‘fun’. Movies crammed with special effects are not fun. Neither are games.
People who are not buying the 3DS, like myself, see the 3DS going backwards as an entertainment device in comparison to the DS. All the ‘3d special effects’ are just getting in the way of gaming. All the ‘viral effects’ such as Streetpass seem to be getting in the way of gaming. I do not want to purchase ‘special effects’ or ‘viral effects’. I just want fun games.
I think the reason why people see the 3DS as an incremental step from the DS, instead of a whole new generation, is because 3DS offers nothing to the consumer experience except for ‘incremental steps’. Does the 3d output change the gameplay? No. Do the viral elements like street pass change the gameplay? No. The 3DS looks like a DS on steroids. It is like three DS systems duct-taped together.
The 3DS comes across as nothing more than a DS with ‘special effects’. Sure, the system is more powerful and has greater wireless capabilities. But consumers do not see hardware, they only see games. Until games use these elements, consumers will not see them.
I think the ‘Star Wars’ approach to video games should be dropped. What should replace the ‘Star Wars’ approach to video games should be…. a video game approach to video games. Iwata and Miyamoto are now old. Using the ‘Star Wars’ approach might have been appropriate because there was no history of video games. But now there is a history spanning decades. If you look at the history of video games closely, you can see patterns emerge. And these patterns are all clues about how a video game console should be designed and what people want from a video game.
“But Malstrom! Nintendo does this already!” They actually don’t. This is why Miyamoto and Iwata are hostile at the mentioning of restoring Zelda by looking at some of the gameplay elements that originally build Zelda. Miyamoto is opposed to continuing 2d Mario, despite the sales success, and is only making 2d Mario because Iwata and the business side of Nintendo overruled him.
How do I make it clear that Nintendo’s business philosophy is ‘Star Wars’? Why do you think Mario was in space in Mario Galaxy? And why do you think Miyamoto was insistent on a sequel that placed Mario in space again? Why do you think Miyamoto and Iwata were so pressuring for light saber game to be made with the Wii? Or why a launch title for the Gamecube was a Star Wars game? Or how Star Fox was practically a Nintendo-ized version of Star Wars?
To answer the question, the reason why Nintendo remained healthy on the handhelds was because the handheld games shared the NES and SNES spirit, that arcade spirit. Nintendo actually had a different philosophy of their handheld consoles and their home consoles. The handheld console was to be integrated with the daily life of the person. The N64 and Gamecube were not. Instead, they were to sell because of ‘Star Wars’ special effects. It was only until the DS and Wii that Nintendo focused on integrating the consoles with a person’s daily life which brought them great success. Now, with the 3DS, the focus is once again on ‘Star Wars’ special effects.
If Nintendo wants the 3DS to succeed, they must shift the 3DS game software to be about integrating with the consumer’s life, not about ‘wowing’ with special effects. Nintendo doesn’t have much time. With a year of a new console release, reputation becomes a settled matter and is impossible to change. Nintendo has one year to change the reputation of the 3DS before it gets locked in forever as the ‘souped up DS with special effects, LOL’ reputation.
The best tool Nintendo has at its disposal is its shop. The rebranding of the Ware is a good thing. The 3DS and its software has overshot the market, so many consumers will be looking at the online shop for an alternative. This is one area the 3DS can improve on the DS in terms the consumer cares about. One of the problems with handheld gaming is carrying around the games. This makes those shop games attractive and useful. (The DSi had the shop, too, but the 3DS hardware will be in a position to deliver ‘good enough’ products via the shop.)
Will a killer app explode the 3DS in popularity? We can never know since you never know where the next surprise hit will come from (which is why they are called ‘surprise’ hits). But let’s look at some examples:
Mario Kart 3DS- Mario Kart has been on every Nintendo console except the Gameboy and NES. From my consumer viewpoint, I see Mario Kart as a game to get once I have decided to buy the console. But I never have let Mario Kart be the game that brought me into the system. So I do not see Mario Kart changing the longterm trajectory of the 3DS. Remember, the N64 and Gamecube also had Mario Kart and they didn’t make the systems rise to heaven. That said, Mario Kart is going to be extremely popular on the 3DS. Why? It is because 3d effects work very well with racing games. This is why current 3DS consumers are warm to Ridge Racer.
Ocarina of Time 3DS- History shows that when a game is ported to another system it was not designed for, it doesn’t sell as well. Also, Ocarina of Time, much beloved, is not as popular as many think. Did Ocarina of Time cause the N64 to rise to heaven? No. So a handheld port of an old N64 game will unlikely sell the hardware. The same goes for Starfox 64 3DS.
Super Mario 3DS- Did 3d Mario sell the N64 or Gamecube? No. Did Mario Galaxy sell the Wii? No. So why on earth would a 3d Mario suddenly sell a handheld?
2d Mario 3DS- This game’s market impact will be interesting. I expect it to cause a shorterm sales boost similar to 2d Mario’s impact on the Wii in Japan. What Mario 5 showed in Japan was that one game cannot save the system. The entire console’s software direction needs to be trending towards the mass market’s interest as opposed to one game. A 2d Mario game would not have saved the Virtual Boy either.
Animal Crossing 3DS- It depends on what is done with it. If it is just the same old Animal Crossing but with ‘omg 3d effects’ and ‘omg streetpass’, I do not think it will be successful in pushing the hardware.
The games that do best on Nintendo systems are games that are local multiplayer. I think any hit game on the 3DS will be a multiplayer game of some sort. Perhaps a Monster Hunter type game (in how people play it multiplayer). Look what that game did for the PSP in Japan.
Concerning the lack of excitement about the 3DS, don’t look at whether the hardware is in stock or if people are playing around with the 3DS. Only look at the excitement concerning the 3DS games. I remember being excited over crummy Wii launch titles. I just had to try out every Wii game! When I hopped on the DS, I began going through all the DS games because I found the system interesting. Some games were neat like Kirby’s Canvus Curse.
With the Wii, people could not stop playing Wii Sports. Instead of overanalyzing the system, its features, and all that, just look to see if people keep playing it and keep buying software.
Software sales are the beating heart of a game console. Let’s give it some time to see how strong the 3DS heart is.
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