Like Nintendo, the moves of Blizzard are explained by everyone but yet no one seems to understand them. If they did, there would be many other companies like Blizzard.
And like other popular phenomenons in gaming, many people do not understand WoW or its appeal. I played it during Vanilla and recently jumped back in. Much of this was due to my friends playing and asking for some help. Many in the US military play WoW (because all they have is a laptop) and keep the habit once they get back to the US. So I rather enjoy playing with war veterans in a video game. (When I resurrect them, I say, “I wish I could do this for you guys in real life…” and they get all quiet.)
Above: Malstrom only plays WoW with people like the above soldier. The number of veterans who are gamers, and many do play WoW, is something not well known.
WoW is entering unexplored territory as the game nears seven years of age. No video game has ever held on to a mass market past a generation. World of Warcraft launched when the DS and PSP launched (a year or two before Xbox 360, Wii, and PS3 launched). WoW’s market performance is absolutely amazing.
WoW’s growth stopped with Wrath of the Lich King (not the best expansion). Since then, WoW has been struggling to hold onto its subscribers (which are around 12-14 million). I’m now learning that the subscriber base is far more fluid than people believe as people subscribe and unsubscribe all the time. Major content patches and expansions tend to see a spike of resubscribing.
Lately, WoW has been starting to lose some of its subscribers (officially, WoW has returned to Wrath levels after losing the growth that the launch of Cataclysm had). WoW is also facing unique challenges. It has the age of a near-seven year old game. It is much, much tougher to get people to subscribe with a very bad economy. And as there are more expansions, the pipeline to new WoW customers shrinks because of the added initial costs. (“But Malstrom, they don’t have to buy the new expansions! They can just start with normal WoW.” Only someone who hasn’t played the game recently can say that. The original WoW content has been redone with Cataclysm, and it is streamlined. Vanilla WoW, by itself, cannot be satisfying which Blizzard agrees with releasing Burning Crusade for free.)
Also, based on a conference call with investors, we learn that the free trial version of WoW wasn’t working because new people would only play the game for a day or two and get up to level 6 (which takes like twenty minutes).
The latest moves from Blizzard are all indications they are responding to these challenges.
-The free trial has been revamped to be ‘Up to Level 20 with no payment’. People do not try to the free trial because of the time restrictions on it. What I mean is that the free trial says “X amount of days…” and people won’t even both because they have to rearrange their schedule to make certain they get all they can out of the free trial. This is why the change was made. (This is actually a downgrade because with a persistent gamer, a free trial could have someone level all the way up to 55.)
-Cataclysm’s price was slashed to $20, and Burning Crusade is now given away for free. This is to reduce the initial costs for the new player. It is to increase the pipeline of the new WoW customers.
These moves are clearly from a company trying to attract new customers. Instead, every news story is writing this as if Blizzard is transforming WoW into a Free 2 Play model!
To everyone’s credit, no one is accepting that ‘interpretation’ from the Game Media. People from the Game Industry to gamers are saying, “Hey, how the hell are you getting Free 2 Play from all this?” No one is buying it. So what is going on?
National American journalists interact with each other, so I am sure the game journalists do as well. This is how the ‘cult’ forms (President of EA’s word for them). They hear the news from Blizzard and someone in their group says, “What is the real story here? Is this the beginning of Blizzard moving to a Free 2 Play model?” And then all the little game journalists go off and write the story with that premise and question. The interpretation is all wrong.
Perhaps the reason why game journalists’ interpretations are all wrong is because they are in constant contact with ‘face-time’ obsessed analysts who try to throw themselves into every news story.
Check out this story. Look how it starts:
World of Warcraft Starter Edition was unveiled earlier this week, revealing Blizzard’s new scheme to hook players into World of Warcraft if they’re not already playing the hugely popular MMO. The new edition allows players to try the game for free until they’ve reached level 20, and while it’s not a complete switch to a free-to-play business model, it could be seen as a strategic move to counter growing competition in the MMO space.
My emphasis above is the bold. There is nothing to indicate a change in business model at all! Yet, a journalist on gaming business is writing as if there is one, and then going so far to say that it is a ‘strategic move’ against the competition! There is so much wrong here! WoW didn’t become successful through ‘competition’. And all the praised ‘WoW killers’ haven’t been able to stand up to WoW. If the recent Rift didn’t cause this change, then why is there assumption that Star Wars Old Republic would? Rift was a far greater competitive threat than these other MMOs.
IndustryGamers spoke with a few analysts about Blizzard’s much expanded WoW free trial option, and we asked if it should be viewed as a pre-emptive strike against BioWare’s upcoming Star Wars: The Old Republic.
Before you can entertain any interpretation, you need some sort of facts. There are no facts here. IndustryGamers might as well be a tabloid.
IndustryGamers spoke with a few analysts about Blizzard’s much expanded WoW free trial option, and we asked if it should be viewed as a pre-emptive strike against BioWare’s upcoming Star Wars: The Old Republic.
Based on what facts? Listen to what Pachter says…
“I absolutely think it’s a pre-emptive move against the Star Wars launch,” he told us. “They aren’t giving away anything to existing subscribers (except for the Burning Crusade expansion), and it’s a great hook to attract new subscribers. People new to MMOs will have to think about whether to buy Star Wars or WoW, it’s actually a brilliant strategic move.”
That is a pretty big except. “They aren’t giving away anything to existing subscribers… EXCEPT A FREE EXPANSION.” Perhaps Pachter also missed the 4.2 content patch for WoW that came out only days ago.
Sterne Agee analyst Arvind Bhatia noted that it’s It’s likely reaction to “a little bit of both–free to play competition and pre-emptive strike against Star Wars.” He also speculated, “In addition, it’s possible (and this is just a theory), Blizzard is getting closer to the launch of the next expansion pack for WoW.”
He isn’t even bothering to look at this industry at all. These guys must be replying to James Brightman’s email in a nonchalant matter. WoW’s last expansion, Cataclysm, came out months ago. The head of Blizzard specifically said that two years between expansions may be too long. This implies a year and a half or one year between expansions. Also, they would have to first announce the expansion and TEST IT. Blizzard performs open tests, or do any of these morons bother looking up the company? Blizzard’s last release was a WoW expansion, and its focus will be on Diablo 3 and the first Starcraft 2 expansion coming up.
Listen to this guy again:
He also speculated,
“In addition,
it’s possible
(and this is just a theory),
Blizzard is getting closer to the launch of the next expansion pack for WoW.”
It’s not possible. It is not a theory. You are talking out of your ass, good sir.
David Cole of DFC Intelligence doesn’t agree, however, that Blizzard is reacting to free-to-play. Instead, he just views it as Blizzard trying to find new ways to attract people to an old game.
Never thought I’d agree with Cole with anything.
“I think it is more an issue of WoW has reached somewhat of a saturation point and while it has held steady it hasn’t seen a great deal of growth,” he explained. “The competition I think is once you reach a certain level of success it gets very hard to find new people willing to try it.”
“Overall I am not sure it will have a huge impact on the overall subscriber base for WoW. As I said there just aren’t that many consumers that would be interested in the game that haven’t tried it over the past six years. The free trial has so many restrictions you imagine anyone interested will upgrade.“
The bold is another ‘fact’ that laugh-balls like James Brightman do not even bother to report. If they did, they couldn’t write a narrative saying Blizzard was adopting a new business model with WoW.
People have no idea how expensive it is to operate a game like WoW. Aside from the technical issues, there is also the customer support (you know, that office Blizzard has in Austin) that answers people’s phone calls. There is no way, no how, any of this could become ‘free’.
Blizzard is off-setting many of these cost reductions by finding new ‘revenue streams’ much to the annoyance of their customers. There is a ‘guild chat’ and ‘auction’ thing that you pay $3.99 additionally per month for you to use on your iPhone. Blizzard recently announced a cross realm instancing, but this will cost you another subscription as well.
Blizzard moving to Free 2 Play my ass. These game journalists, such as and especially James Brightman, should be fired for spreading such misinformation (yes, fired, because such misinformation like ‘WoW changing business models’ can greatly alter the stock of the world’s largest video game company). And analysts, like Pachter, should be forever laughed out of the gaming industry by what he says. Pachter isn’t even consistent with what he says himself.
Pachter should have been laughed out half a decade ago for saying this about WoW:
In any case, as in years past, there are those who believe that paid online gaming is all a fad anyway.
“I don’t think there are four million people in the world who really want to play online games every month,” said Michael Pachter, a research analyst for Wedbush Morgan, a securities firm. “World of Warcraft is such an exception. I frankly think it’s the buzz factor, and eventually it will come back to the mean, maybe a million subscribers.”
“It may continue to grow in China,” Mr. Pachter added, “but not in Europe or the U.S. We don’t need the imaginary outlet to feel a sense of accomplishment here. It just doesn’t work in the U.S. It just doesn’t make any sense.”
New York Times, September 6, 2005.
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