2012 has extremely different macro conditions than 2006

In discussion of the Wii U, what isn’t being emphasized enough is that 2012 has extremely different macro conditions than 2006. The economy was so much better in 2006 that the fact is not even debatable. Unemployment is very high. The fact is that there is not as much disposable income as there was in 2006. Many people are struggling and are out of work.

Any game console is going to have a much tougher sell today than six years ago. Game consoles like the PlayStation 3 and the $599 price tag wouldn’t survive today.

Even if the Wii came out this year, it could not be as successful as in 2006 because 2012 has extremely different macro conditions. These are conditions that are outside Nintendo’s control as well as the Game Industry’s. Sony and Microsoft also have tougher jobs ahead in the future to sell their consoles.

Unlike the 3DS where I am totally disinterested (no way), the Wii U is more (I might want this, just not right now). There is no sense of urgency as there was with the Wii. A big factor of this is due to money. My financial situation is not as good as it was in 2006. For the reader, I am sure you might be in a similar situation.

There is nothing about the Wii U that is making me want to run away from it. If the rumored $299 price tag is true, then that is not bad. The U Pad is understandable and seems fine. In contrast, the N64 and Gamecube controllers confused me considerably. Unlike the Wii, though, I wanted to get my hands on the Wii controller as soon as possible. But due to the DS, everyone has experience with touch screen gaming. The U pad doesn’t come across as ‘new’ as it comes across more as ‘familiar’.

There are four things that appeal to me about the Wii U.

-The 2d Mario game. Without that game, I fear the Wii U would be in a disastrous situation as there is no market interest in Pikmin 3, Nintendo Land, or the other Wii U games. Not mass market interest.

-Unfocused Gaming. Focused gaming would be you in front of the TV with all your attention on the game. What was fun about the DS was that it allowed unfocused gaming. You could play your DS during commercials at the TV or while you puttered around the house. The Wii U controller does that same job. It would be nice to play a VC game or a 2d Mario level in between things I am doing. I imagine I would be using the Wii U controller while I do stuff on the computer. There is a power outlet in the wall near me where I can imagine hooking the Wii U up there and just using the controller for some unfocused gaming sessions. While this is good for the Wii U, keep in mind it eliminates any need for me to purchase a 3DS.

-Like many people, my Wii is used mostly for Netflix at the moment. And, strangely, my Netflix has recently been freezing on my Wii. Having the Wii U be able to provide that media and perhaps have the U Pad be able to stream media (what about online music?) is a plus. Unfortunately, Nintendo chose not to talk about it which is fine since it wasn’t games.

-I have these Wii games which could be used with the Wii U. Never underestimate the appeal of backwards compatibility.

-I really like Nintendo allowing diversity of controllers. The Wii U Pro Controller I prefer over the Xbox 360 controller due to the D-Pad and buttons being on the same level. This would allow easier 2d gaming.

My biggest problem with the Wii U is that Nintendo hasn’t addressed the Big Elephant in the Room concerning the Wii: everyone felt shortchanged by the Wii. The Wii sold not just on games of Wii Sports but on anticipation of future games utilizing the Wii-mote. These games never came. We also got many insulting games such as Wii Music or Metroid: Other M (insulting in that you put the game in front of someone, and they get angry).

Third party games never really came to the Wii. And some of those third party games were denied by Nintendo such as Xenosaga. It would be in Nintendo’s interest to highlight third party games such as RPGs. Every successful Nintendo console has had RPGs on it (NES, SNES, handhelds like DS) while the unsuccessful Nintendo consoles did not (N64 owners bitterly missed out on Final Fantasy 7, Gamecube had no RPGs, Wii didn’t either until Xenosaga and then Nintendo didn’t want to sell it!).

Gamers want a well rounded library to fulfill their appetites. Games like Mario Kart and 2d Mario are fantastic, but there needs to be RPGs, sports games, and shooters. The biggest problem isn’t missing third party games but that third party companies keep approaching the Nintendo console in ways the consumer doesn’t want. What I want from an Ubisoft game is not a game designed around the Nintendo hardware. I want a more meat and potatoes type experience.

The reason why the market tends to trend with the same genres over time is because gamers do not like re-learning how to play. A first person shooter is essentially the same so it keeps selling. The same with 2d platformers. The same with sports games. People feel comfortable buying a golf game because they know the rules of golf. All this ‘wacky hardware’ designed games requires more work in order to access the content inside the game. And it doesn’t seem worth the effort.

But the biggest problem with the Wii U is the lack of online gaming. No games at launch, from Nintendo or third parties, have mentioned online playing. Today, games get much of their value by online gameplay. All Nintendo has shown is integrating Gaming Message Forums and Twitter with Super Mario Brothers. This is not the innovation or online gameplay I desire.

When Xbox 360 launched, it launched with Call of Duty 2 that dominated the online multiplayer at that point in time. Call of Duty would eventually grow to become a behemoth franchise.

Wii had poor online multiplayer. And now the Wii U will launch with zero online multiplayer. This means there isn’t much to do with the Wii U through the dry launch period. With an online multiplayer game, it would give the Wii U users a way to bond and to play together. Too much emphasis is on the local multiplayer.

The Wii U has much potential with it. I want to buy it… just not right now.

As we get closer to launch, I expect the value of the Wii U to go up in gamers’ eyes. The presence of Super Mario Brothers 6 does give the console a better launch line-up than the Nintendo 64 and the Gamecube… as well as the PlayStation and PlayStation 2 and the Xboxes. 2d Mario does miracles for moving hardware. It hasn’t failed before, and I don’t see why it would start now. (But it won’t last forever as Super Mario World didn’t make the SNES sell forever. It took a DKC to get the SNES to beat the Genesis.)

Nintendo’s biggest issue with the Wii U is making consumers want to invest in it in the long term due to the disappointment of the Wii. If I was Nintendo, I would talk up about the stuff coming in the upcoming year. Remember that at E3 2006, games like Super Smash Brothers Brawl and Mario Galaxy were shown off with Brawl launching WAY later and Galaxy launching over a year after the Wii came out.

Investors should realize that no one likes buying hardware and do their hardest to talk themselves out of it. It takes a really strong game in order to get people past that hardware obstacle. Most of the negativity surrounding the Wii U is people trying to not want to buy another game console. This atmosphere will change as we get nearer to launch and change further when people play it.

As someone who didn’t buy game consoles for generations, I can assure you that consumers keep paying attention to the consoles, what games are on it, with a tug of war inside their heart and head about one side wanting to purchase it but the other side (the financial side) saying how games are stupid, and you don’t need to waste money on games. These consumers will also remain curious about the consoles and will find excuses to ‘try it out’ at a friend’s house or something. It is at this moment when the conversion of non-customer to customer comes. It famously occurred with the Wii. But it occurred with the NES as well. The SNES didn’t launch with any multiplayer games (not many people realize this).

Wii U won’t be a 3DS. But Wii U won’t be a Wii either. If Nintendo doesn’t put out literally demoralizing products like Wii Music or Metroid: Other M and keeps putting out quality games such as Super Mario Brothers U (or Mario Kart Wii, look how that baby sold!) and make sure third party adventure and RPG games are present, the Wii U has the potential of SNES quality.

It is stupid to define the game console based on its launch. The NES had crappy games. The Genesis had lousy arcade ports. The SNES had Super Mario World (cool but a little disappointing), F-Zero, and Pilotwings which were OK (nostalgia makes these games seem cooler than they were when they appeared). Even the N64 launched strongly with games like Mario 64.

The PlayStation 1 and 2 launched with garbage. The Xbox 360 didn’t launch with anything interesting.

The problem is the follow-up, not the launch. If quality games keep coming, the value of the Wii U goes up fast. If a ‘party games’ glut hits the Wii U like it did the Wii, and we get strange games like Wii Music, then the value of the Wii U drops like a rock.

I believe most gamers are in a similar position as myself. “I want it, but not right now.” People are scared of another Wii situation where the console is only stuck at ‘potential’. If quality games keep showing up, the gamers will follow. They always do.