Above: Kermit sings about rainbows.
With four days left, the time for polls are over. With so much early voting, how do you poll an electorate that a large percentage have already voted? All the analysis now is on the turnout of the early voting and absentees . From what I hear, the R tent feels very confident in Ohio and several other states (like Iowa). The R tent believes the D tent is panicking and is cannibalizing their base for early voting. Meanwhile, the D tent is saying Obama will assuredly win reelection, and Romney visiting ‘blue’ states like PA is just desperation and spending all that money the campaign has on hand. The D tent sees the right’s anger at Chris Christie for meeting with Obama as a sign that Obama’s got this election.
Ohioans have noticed the falling price of gas. “Hey Joe, isn’t that something how the price of gas keeps falling the closer it gets to Kermit Day?” OK, he did not say Kermit Day. At this point in time, there is nothing that can be done that is going to influence the electorate unless something crazy about a candidate comes out.)
But let us talk about the polls. What is up with the polls? Is anything going on with the polls? Both the R Tent and D Tent are doing the exactly the same thing and both don’t realize it. Both tents are ignoring some polls and focusing on others. Both tents are not embracing ALL the polling. For example, the D tent doesn’t like Gallup or Rasmussen.
But there is an issue with the polling this cycle. The issue is with the Likely Voter screen. For whatever reason, in 2012 it is extremely ‘loose’ for voters especially from 2008. In other words, the conservative statement that pollsters are skewing the polls with a high Democrat sample to manipulate the public narrative is not correct. The problem is that the Likely Voter filter has greatly changed. Why?
Money. When monetary pressures increase, the Likely Voter filter loosens. The looser the Likely Voter filter, the less calls that need to be made. All the state polling, and some national polling, is being done by the media which is broke. Newspapers have been closing all over the place. Have you seen CNN ratings? Even from four years ago, there is a huge loss of money for these media companies. The reason why you see these very high D+ samples is because the pollsters don’t have the money to keep combating the high refusal rate. In 2008, the Likely Voter filter also worked better since the Democratic enthusiasm matched the Democratic registration.
Here is another question. Which pollster has a significant amount of money on their hands? The wealthiest pollster would be Gallup. Gallup isn’t just a national pollster, it has locations all over the world. Other pollsters, especially the media ones, just don’t have much money. Below that, you have university pollsters which are hungry for fame.
Gallup also released a very interesting prediction. It was about voter turnout numbers. Gallup is projecting less voter turnout for 2012 than in 2004 and 2008. This is how Gallup is getting the +5 R number.
I think the polling profession is going to be significantly reduced in future election cycles. Not only do these media entities have major money issues (which could be what is screwing up with the likely voter filter), things like early voting, lack of landlines, and power outages are making it harder to get a sample. From what I’m hearing from the political scientists, the rate of non-responders and people refusing to respond is higher than ever and climbing. Because of that, it becomes more expensive to do a poll (since you have to call more).
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The ridicule against Nate Silver continues. The most entertaining ridicule comes from someone who created a twitter account called ‘538 model’ as if the model was a woman. Whoever is behind that is putting out some funny lines.
Has anyone heard from Herman Cain’s Chilean model? Thinking of business opportunities for after Nov
Lots asking about diet Nate has me on. As many fruits/veggies I want, but ABSOLUTELY NO carbs, sugar, or Rasmussen polls.
Nate says there’s a 76.8% chance I’m getting a ring by Christmas. Should I be worried?
I heard about Nate Silver betting $1000 on his model against Scarborough. This is how pundits behave, not political scientists. At least Scarborough admits he’s being a pundit. I’d rather see Carville crack an egg on his head again.
Axelrod has also gotten into the betting game. He promises he will shave off his mustache if MN, MI, or PA are won by Romney.
Hilariously, Axelrod’s mustache made a twitter account. It reads like a Republican prankster is behind it (quoting Marist polls like gospel, etc.). I’ve noticed the Republican orientated political scientists have been very punchy lately.
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Several years ago, some company I never heard from kept demanding money from me. Research on this company showed that they operated right at the fringe of the law (barely legal) and complaints were all over about them. Arguing with them was useless because they had a routine where they sent something that ‘proved’ you accidentally subscribed to them or something and had to pay them ‘back money’. I called them up, put on my most smiling and arrogant voice that I’ve heard politicians use in real life (looking back, I think I sounded like Joe Biden), and I told the company what a wonderful day it was because of how I knew Greg Abbot. He and I are best buds, don’t you see? The person on the other end got very quiet and said, “Message understood.” All claims, everything on me from this company, was dropped, and I’ve never heard from them again.
I lied, of course. I don’t know Abbot. But the Texas Attorney General strikes fear into so many people. The Republican Party in Texas is very much wrapped up around the little finger of the big businesses (which the Tea Parties here hate). Abbot, in particular, spent much of the last few years filing lawsuits against the EPA with the Obama Administration. Since Texas creates 25% of America’s energy, he was legally challenging many of these new regulations. Some went to the Supreme Court.
So when the Texas Attorney General threatened to throw UN officials who want to ‘monitor elections’ into jail if they get near 100 feet of a polling place, I wasn’t surprised. Later, Iowa joined Texas in threatening to throw UN officials in jail.
The State Department said the UN Officials must be allowed as they are diplomats. I think Abbot told the State Department to pound sand as did Iowa’s attorney general.
And sure enough, the UN relented! Hahahaha.
I’m curious how people outside America view this story or view the UN. In the United States, it’s not quite right to say there is no respect for the UN. Obviously, the UN has no army of its own and must have the US military if it wants anything done. But there is something else.
It’s the money. The United States almost entirely funds the United Nations. After all, the UN is located in New York, safe and secure (unlike say, in the Middle East somewhere). When the UN tries to tell the US to do something, it feels like your teenager, who lives under your roof, is giving the parents orders. You don’t want to be rude to your child. You just smile, nod, and proceed to ignore the teenager as it is your roof. and he has zero leverage.
If the US ever stops getting tired of the UN, it could cease funding it and the UN would dissolve on the spot. But no one wants to be the president or Congress that ‘ended the UN’.
The UN is so irrelevant, the 9/11 terrorists flew right over it to target skyscrapers. Apparently, the skyscrapers were seen as more of a threat than the UN.
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People who haven’t been to this website before are asking me, “What is with Kermit Day?”
Kermit is a video game message forum term. Since this is a gaming site, it seemed natural. The gamers picked up on what Kermit Day was real fast which what triggered some of the hate mail. One emailer ‘cannot wait for me to die’.
For those who don’t know, the game industry is one of the most unpredictable industries ever. Most companies are too scared to enter it. Gamers are very passionate and create expectations and allegiances to certain brands. When huge news erupts that a major game series is exclusive to some other console or some major expectation is blown up, it becomes Kermit time. The gamers all flail around, crazy like, in a state of shock and disbelief. It is literally the magic carpet of the Alternate World being pulled from their feet.
Since both the R tents and D tents believe ‘inevitable election’ for their side, you know Kermit Day is assured. It will be glorious.
Seeing how Big Bird has already made an appearance, why shouldn’t Kermit the Frog?
Above: This commercial is NOT a parody. It is an actual campaign commercial.
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