Email: This gen seems different

I remember the end of last gen. Most of the “hardcore” gamers were really, really ready for the next gen to come. Open-world games like Grand Theft Auto were popular, but they looked like fried butt (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=agxcbQqbFJ0) and ran poorly. The PS2 could barely handle an online first-person shooter, and a lot of the better-looking Xbox games didn’t have stable frame rates. You heard people talking all the time about how they couldn’t wait for the leap in detail and features next-gen would bring.

 

I’m just not hearing that this time. There’s some marginal discussion. Fans of Battlefield would really, really like to have 64 players instead of 24. The really super-dorky types are talking about more realistic hair. But mostly, people seem not to care. And developers are saying that realistically, they can only invest around 5% more in producing new games without all going bankrupt, so you’re not going to see this enormous leap in asset quality. Yep, Killzone Shadow Fall is pretty:

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RN80YbBnXd0

 

But so was Killzone 3:

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_fTpztdqeWQ(It was also boring and had terrible multiplayer, but that’s another story). I can tell you I have zero interest in paying any money for that kind of upgrade and have already decided to not get a PS4 until there are literally *no* games coming out for the PS3.

 

So what happens if next gen bombs? What if every console is a Gamecube? Given that this gen had a much slower adoption rate than last gen, it could happen. Obviously, MS and Sony will keep slogging on with their new systems until by sheer attrition, their current-gen systems die out, but it could take even longer this time. Remember how long PS2s kept selling?Of course, it is different. The economy of 2013 is not the same as 2006. I see the Game Industry is using various rationalizations so far for the under-performance of Gen 8 consoles.

3DS- Smartphones and tablets.

Vita- Smartphones and tablets.

Wii U- Nintendo’s lack of third party / lack of “technology” (where “technology” is only able to be defined by the Game Industry and never by consumers)

Nextbox and PS4 are practically guaranteed to perform worse than their predecessors due to the macro-economic conditions. Anyone saying otherwise doesn’t know what is going on outside. The way how a Nextbox or PS4 would sell more than their predecessor is if they cannibalized heavily from the other consoles. For example, if PS4 did very well, it would be due to cannibalizing from the Nextbox (assuming if Microsoft did something stupid like put out online only console). The victor of 8th Generation is going to be over a rapidly shrinking and declining market. It won’t be a victory at all. Everyone will be a loser.

What is the probability that the game industry would GROW or remain STEADY when every other industry (not natural resources or government) is suffering decline? Most of the newly unemployed are the best customers for the Game Industry. How are they going to buy these games when they are already struggling?

I’m shocked at the decision making inside Nintendo (but I’ve gone over that a thousand times). I’m quite joyous at watching the Game Industry enter decline. Seeing these Industry companies suffer more and more losses is like watching cartoon characters run against the wall repeatedly.

Who is going to buy the Nextbox and PS4? No one is asking this. Even if you take the same exact consumers of Xbox 360 and PS3, many of them are in a worse economic situation today than they were (e.g. no job). Who is to buy all these consoles? The NPD keeps saying sales keep declining month after month. More and more game companies are laying people off or closing altogether. Instead of groking this reality, the Game Industry keeps doing The Same Old Thing. It is easy to predict the results will be the same: a steadily shrinking market with games becoming riskier to make.

Do you want to know how STUPID the Game Industry is? They know their market is shrinking. They should be going, “Let us EXPAND the market. Let us bring in NEW GAMERS.” Nintendo did this last generation, and they reaped the profit. The Game Industry keeps making the oldest games with the newest shaders. They are relying on the hardware makers to ‘expand the market’ (which Microsoft and Sony thinks is done by tossing in a movie player or some non-game gimmick). The market is shrinking is the Game Industry thinking doing the same exact thing will bring about a different result.

I’m realizing now that the mentality of the people in the Game Industry is the mentality of the people behind the US and Euro financial institutions. Yeah, I know that is a low blow, a terrible, terrible insult. When things keep going badly, it would make sense to do something different. But to do something different would be to give up on an ideology.

And this is what I’m sensing more and more from game makers. I’ve already talked about how Nintendo’s 8th Gen insane decision making seems dominated by ideology as opposed to sound business strategy. I see the so-called ‘Casual Versus Hardcore’ debate of the 7th Generation in terms of ‘Sound Business Strategies Versus Digital Ideologies’. What would be a ‘digital ideology’? The war against used games would be one (online DRM). Fake achievements would be another. Hamster wheel time sinks is yet another. The best way to describe the ‘casuals’ is that they are non-ideological about their gaming. They don’t care about the Game Industry’s ‘interests’ or Mr. Game Developer’s need to be seen as a genius.

I’ll be enjoying the game industry implosion. I know that many game makers are suffering what their idiotic bosses are doing. But game developers have very high technical skills and can easily get a job in another industry. Therefore, I’ll enjoy every sales target missed, every ‘year over year decline’, and every quarter earning ‘lower than expected’.

It is not the death of gaming. But it is the death of the hardcore. The sooner the hardcore are purged, the sooner gaming can recover.