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Fear Malstrom,
As a PS1 and PS2 owner who skipped the PS3, the Playstation 4 looks completely kick-ass. It’s weird to see you talk so positively about a pseudo-PC company like Sony, but you have right reason to. THIS is how you launch a new console. However, there are some things I am concerned about.
Firstly, I also noticed one thing that quietly slipped by the E3 conference: “Used games restrictions” can be imposed on the PS4 if the publishers wish so. While Sony proudly said “We won’t restrict used games ever” they didn’t mention that a publisher can block used games on the PS4 if they want to. Of course Sony meant that first party titles by SCE won’t be blocked, but for third parties it is a different story. I can see EA and quite a few others doing this for all of their games since they already did online passes. Especially EA. Sony is nowhere near as bad as the Xbox One, but it still is an industry vehicle to some degree.
There’s also the question of how much of a loss will the PS4 be selling at? Sony was really never the one to sell consoles at profit and neither was Microsoft. The PS4 has better hardware than the Xbox One and is a whole $100 cheaper. There’s also the fact that you have to pay for online on the PS4, but not the PS3. Those factors combined raises some big questions on the economics going behind the production and sales of the console? How much are they losing? Are they expecting Plus memberships to cover it? Are they outright depending on Plus? How many games must be bought for the console to break even? Are they confident in the attach rate?
Still, it was the most solid press conference Sony had in quite a few years. What I’ve seen was Sony in “Survival Mode.” The reason why Sony had the best conference was because Sony needed the best conference. After what happened throughout the years (selling off their buildings, their stock status going JUNK, billions of losses), they had to do all the right moves this time. There is a possibility that Sony was considering used games and online checks like the Xbone, but seeing the internet explode in sheer backlash, they could’ve mounted a massive u turn on all that. MS knows it can shoulder the losses, but Sony would evaporate if it tried to do the same thing on that scale. The whole “publishers can decide for themselves” probably came as a compromise due to the cartel still putting pressure on them and all.
Back when the 7th gen war beginning to dawn, it was “Survival Mode” Nintendo who made the Wii happen. The DS didn’t rocket off until “Survival Mode” Nintendo changed gears on it. Sony, on the other hand, went into “Arrogant Mode” when the PS2 blew the competition away with one hand behind its back, so they made the PS3 and Vita thinking that it would be a slam dunk. Things went badly of course. When Nintendo was the winner of the 7th gen, it switched into “Arrogant Mode” like Sony did and made the 3DS and Wii U in similar vein.
So how successful will the PS4 be? Well, Sony’s PS4, as of 2013, is also in the same position at the Xbox 360 in 2005. Before the interface updates and the price hikes, the 360 used to have no advertisements and cheaper online membership. It was also $100 below the other “big tech” competitor, the PS3. Now, the PS4 will likely have no ads (at least no “intrusive” ads) and the price for Plus is the same as Microsoft’s Live Gold before the price hike. It is also $100 less than it’s twin competitor. For this reason, I expect the PS4 to not rocket in sales at first, but to moderately crawl like the 360 did. Of course there are some differences like the lack of Wii and worse economy, but I don’t expect it to perform as good as PS1 and PS2 anytime soon.
Despite Sony being financially damaged as it is, they could make it by the skin of their teeth if the PS4 succeeds. If the cross-platform interaction starts pushing Vitas hard enough, that combined with the home console sales will hopefully put Nintendo back into “Survival Mode” where they’ll start kicking ass again. Nintendo needs to dig deep and go wild like they did with the Wii. I know that you like watching Nintendo suffer for their arrogance, but neither of us want them to die out. Sony could beat Nintendo this gen, but Nintendo is the only one left who can beat the industry.
Anyone thinking Generation 8 is going to be like the PS1 or PS2 era are going to be in for a rude shock. The macro-economic situation will not allow it.
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