Each generation is a clean slate

One thing the last emailer was saying, and I have been seeing as well, is that many Nintendo fans are saying, “Things will pick up, Wii U will bounce back, 3DS will bounce back,” and so on. I know what is going on here.

Our sense of history is molded from the generation we start paying close attention to things. Many Nintendo fans began to pay closer attention to the business gymnastics of the Game Industry in Generation 7 because of the insanity of the DS and Wii phenomenons. It is the belief that the same context will apply, with minor variations, with Generation 8 as well as Generation 9, 10, 11, and so on.

Things massively change. There used to be this thing called the Cold War which prevented global trade. When it was over, worldwide trade picked up as did console sales worldwide. There was this thing called the Internet revolution. So many things change.

And of course, some things stay the same. Software always sell hardware. That will never change.

When Generation 7 was starting, many, many people in the Game Industry including the most esteemed analysts could not imagine the Nintendo console becoming a phenomenon. The question to them was when will Nintendo go third party? The reason for their lack of imagination was due to Sony’s domination in Generation 5 and Generation 6. In order to witness Nintendo performing on a phenomenon level, one has to go back to Generation 3.

I recall noticing that every analyst looked at the console market as if consoles began the day the PlayStation came out. Of course, there were many other prior generations of consoles. Why were they ignoring those in their analysis? Why throw out data? If they hadn’t, they would have caught on early that the DS and Wii was mimicking the Generation 3 and Generation 2 consoles of that period of rapid growth instead of ‘CONSOLE WAR’ that defined the market in Generation 4.

The analysts were caught so off guard by the DS and Wii’s success because they used the prior generation as the context of the future. PlayStation 3 was going to be like the PlayStation 2. End of story. There might be some minor tweaks needed such as the price, but PlayStation 3 will be a lesser but same PlayStation 2. It didn’t happen in the slightest.

I think many Nintendo fans are trapped looking through the Generation 7 prism as we look at the events of Generation 8. I think the Generation 7 prism will shatter completely when the Xbone or PlayStation 4 outsell the Wii U.

The PlayStation 4 is not the PlayStation 3.

The Xbone is not the Xbox 360.

And the Wii U is not the Wii.

Those of us who are older and have seen generations after generations pass by recognize that each new generation is a clean slate. I quickly realized in Generation 4 that it would be nothing like Generation 3 much to my disappointment. Generation 8 won’t be like 7. And 9 won’t be like 8.

The one constant theme I see playing out in Generation 8 is economic depression. It is something we’ve never seen before. Every other entertainment industry is down, so why does anyone assume the gaming sector will be up?