I think we may have to wait longer than January or February to find out the true demand for the Xbone and PS4 for one simple reason: nearly every big game coming out for next-gen through March is not just traditionally multiplat, but multigenerational too. Tomb Raider, Assassin’s Creed IV, Watch_Dogs, Thief, Metal Gear Solid V: Ground Zeroes. Even Titanfall, which is Microsoft exclusive on console and has the expectation of “the next big thing” (or had, no single player and only 6v6 multiplayer filled out with bots have people raising some skeptical eyebrows) will be on 360. Why buy an expensive new box with design kinks not ironed out yet if the old box can still play everything you want it to and is as perfected as the console is going to get? PS4 has Killzone and Infamous, but Killzone’s a failed Halo-killer and Infamous and its sequel were given away for free multiple times by Sony. True next-gen starts when we stop seeing these last-gen releases/next-gen downports, but there’s over 100 million PS3/360s out there, they’re only going to get cheaper (I think they’re still stupidly expensive for where we are in their lifecycle), and we may not see a big enough install base of Xbones and PS4’s to do away with non-first party last-gen for a good while yet.
I’m very annoyed that NPD lumps all games by the game type and not the numbers on which platform.
We probably have to wait longer than January or February. One thing is for sure, the PS4 (or Xbox One) is not some tidal wave falling over the market in a phenomena that we haven’t seen before (this is what the pre-NPD hype was all about).
The more data we get, the less hype remains. It is like morning dew evaporating in the sun.
Xbox One and PS4 have one year to define their reputation. After that, their reputations will be locked, and it will be very difficult to change. Wii U is stuck with its reputation no matter what changes with it in the future.