Prior to 2008, people could not imagine an economic depression nor see that many governments are tinderboxes full of debt ready for the flame. After 2008, people had sufficient imagination. Some people remember me openly predicting a major economic downturn in the disruption articles (written 2007 and early 2008). While that may be uncommon for many people to hear at the time, it was very common with conversations I have with people.
“So what happens next?”
Massive economic downturns tend to invite wars. Here is the thing that I find so funny about the economic boom and bust. Around 2000, some jokers at Silicon Valley were saying, “We have beat the business cycle,” and that “stocks always go up, up, up,” and that “real estate prices always go up, up, up.” This sounded as ridiculous to me then as it does to you today. However, most people didn’t question these statements then. They got burned by the Dot Com Bubble and the Subprime Crash. Here is another term said today that I think is equally as absurd and stupid: “We will never have another major war again.”
There will always be wars. In the same way, there will always be economic booms, economic busts, good times, bad times, all marching through the parade of history. There *will* be a war, one day. It’s inevitable because Human Nature is inevitable.
It’s interesting to me that some people seem very surprised by Russia invading Ukraine by taking over Crimea. My response was, “They’re doing it NOW?” The idea of a hostile Russian-China-Middle East alliance waging war has always been of great suspicion. One can make the argument that the West lost the Cold War instead of won it. Naturally, Russia’s actions and public alliance with China are making me return to this subject in discussion and reading.
It’s very important to note that Russia does not think like we do. Both invasions of Georgia and Ukraine occurred after the Olympics. That cannot be a coincidence. Clearly, Russia was counting on the Olympics to be a distraction for the world while Russia prepared. Russia thinks of wheels within wheels when it comes to long term strategy. The 2008 invasion of Georgia and the 2014 invasion of Ukraine, both after the Olympics, certainly should be enough evidence of a long term strategy. Much more has been written on this matter so I’ll leave it to them to talk about.
People said economic depression was ‘impossible’. Yet, here we are. Is global war impossible? Of course not.
Speaking to those I know who have had dealings with Russia, they don’t speak of Russia as a ‘nation’ or ‘culture’ or anything of the type. Instead, they say Russia is a warring place where once they get tired of warring with one another, they go after their neighbors. Historically, Russia and much of China are the descendants of the Mongol Empire.
Let me give you an idea of what I mean by different thinking. With Russia’s anti-gay stance, I wondered why Russia was doing that especially when they were hosting the Olympics. Why invite such international criticism? My Western thinking led me to believe there was a demographic rationale. Russian population growth is very non-existent. Historically, nations tend to stamp out behaviors that lead to depopulation. But another reason may very well be for war reasons. Anti-gay may be Russia’s way of being anti-effeminacy. Effeminacy gets in the way of making soldiers.
I predict we’ll be hearing less about Russia in large part because Russia’s victory humiliates our ‘leaders’. More coverage means more illustration of embarrassment. I’m very curious about what China will do now.
In Japan Times, we read: “China is beefing up spending on high-tech weapons and upgrading combat readiness as it throws its military weight behind territorial claims that have stirred tensions with Japan and its Southeast Asian neighbors.” From ForeignPolicy.com, we read: “Beijing is spending hundreds of billions of dollars on defense, but no one quite knows what they’re up to.”
There is much conflict over the Senkaku Islands. But why? There is nothing strategic of value there. There might be some oil there, but it is undeveloped. The Senkaku Islands certainly could be the prologue to Pacific War.
“It can’t happen.”
Of course, it can’t. Until it does.