Posted by: seanmalstrom | June 19, 2014

Email: NPD May 2014 vs. May 2009

Hello, Master Malstrom!

I’d like to make you aware that you picked the wrong year for comparison. Since it has been about half a year since the PS4 and Xbox One have completed the eighth generation launches, the appropriate month for generation over generation comparisons would be May 2007, about half a year after the Wii and PS3 had launched and completed the seventh generation launches.

Subsequently, your comments about system sales are wrong. The PSP launched in spring 2005 in North America, so May 2009 already marks the beginning of its fifth year on the market. The Wii was not supply constrained anymore, as spring 2009 marked the point in time when Wii momentum had undoubtedly collapsed in North America. If I remember correctly, the Wii put up a number north of 500k in May 2008, and lower numbers in the same month in 2007 because Nintendo hadn’t ramped up production yet.

But your mistake has truly shocking implications for the transition between generations. The PS2 in its third year after the launch of next generation consoles sold more units than the 360, PS3 and Wii combined in their first year after the launch of next generation consoles.

 

I spent all of yesterday driving around Houston taking electrical classes. I was pretty beat. Now the reader might ask, “Malstrom, why are you taking such classes?” I believe the economic recession is not a ‘fad’ but intends to stick around and grow worse. I’m in the process of aligning myself with the oil/gas/petrochemical industry. Not only is the knowledge wickedly technical, the work environment can be pretty rough. While I’m all for entrepreneurship, I needed certain skills so the Economic Angels of Death will pass by my door as well as give me the opportunity to nation hop. It will also put me on the good side of automation (the role I am going for keeps having its demand constantly increased).

Here are the 2014 NPD May numbers again as recap:

PS4 ~ 197k
3DS ~ 97k
XB1 ~ 77k
Wii U ~ 61k
360 ~ 57k
PSV ~ 56k
PS3 ~ 36k
Wii ~ 11k

You want other numbers than 2009? OK. Here are more numbers:

Here is NPD May 2005:

PSP = 250,000
PS2 = 273,000
Xbox = 129,000
GCN = 50,000
GBA/DS = 279,000 (approx)

Here is NPD May 2006:

PS2 – 231,616
360 – 220,877
PSP – 159,659
GBA – 152,023
NDS – 145,930
GCN – 33,040
XBX – 26,353

Here is NPD May 2007:

Nintendo DS – 423,000
Wii – 338,000
PSP – 221,000
PlayStation 2 – 188,000
Xbox 360 – 155,000
PlayStation 3 – 82,000

Here is NPD May 2008:

Wii – 675.1k
Nintendo DS – 452.6k
PlayStation 3 – 208.7k
Xbox 360 – 186.6k
PlayStation Portable – 182.3k
PlayStation 2 – 132.7k

If Wii sales had “collapsed” to about 300k in May 2009, what does that say about the 200k PS4 sales in May 2014? Why are ‘collapsed’ sales better than ‘OMG that PlayStation momentum’ sales of PS4?

The PlayStation 3 was considered the loser last generation. Yet, the PS3 outsold the PS4 from 2008 vs 2014. You can say “PS3 had an extra year in it then.” OK. We can play around with the goal posts. But no way how you arrange these goal posts, the 2014 numbers plain suck.

What is interesting about the Xbox 360 is how it went DOWN after 2006. For all we know, this could be XOne’s peak year. There’s a reason why Microsoft price cut the XOne.


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