Posted by: seanmalstrom | June 15, 2015

Why aren’t the analysts excited about the PS4?

Let’s look at the latest NPD.

Software:

1.) The Witcher III: Wild Hunt (PS4, Xbox One, PC)
2.) Mortal Kombat X (PS4, Xbox One)
3.) Grand Theft Auto V (PS4, Xbox One, 360, PS3, PC)
4.) Minecraft (360, PS3, Xbox One, PS4)
5.) Splatoon (Wii U)
6.) Call of Duty: Advanced Warfare (PS4, 360, Xbox One, PS3, PC)
7.) NBA 2K15 (360, PS4, Xbox One, PS3, PC)
8.) FIFA 15 (PS4, Xbox One, 360, PS3, Wii, 3DS, Vita)
9.) MLB 15: The Show (PS4, PS3)
10.) Super Smash Bros. (3DS, Wii U)

 

“Look at that Splatoon! And it was out for only 3 days. Bomba? Hah!” A high profile first party game on a console with no competition from other games on it and it can’t even outsell Minecraft? I wouldn’t celebrate yet.

Summers tend to be slow periods in gaming. But note this line from The Verge:

 

New hardware sales generated $153.6 million in May, which is down 18 percent year over year from $186.4 million. Software looked even more sluggish as it was down 25 percent from $273.9 million to $204.7 million.

“The decline in May 2015 is attributed to poor comparisons to a strong release slate in May 2014, specifically the launches of Mario Kart 8 and Watch Dogs,” NPD analyst Liam Callahan said. “Collectively, May 2015 launches sold 55 percent less dollars than May 2014 launches, however, catalog games outside of the launch month sold 3 percent more dollar volume compared to catalog games in May 2014.”

Put simply, Callahan is saying new games made less money but old games made more in May 2015 in comparison to May 2014.

Callahan is just trying to polish a turd. The sales are not healthy. Where are all the analysts heralding the victory of the PS4? Forget Carmen Santiago. Where in the world is Michael Pachter? Isn’t the gaming universe now in its correct order with the PS4 tops, then Xbox 1, and then Nintendo at the bottom? Why are they so quiet?

They are quiet because the news is bad and continues to be bad. The magic word here is profits. Game companies are not making more profit aside from a few.

Do you know why Witcher III sold so well? Anecdotal, but there is a kid I know who bought Witcher III along with a PS4. Now, why did he do such a thing? “He wanted Witcher 3 but had to buy a PS4 to get it.” That’s not the story. Witcher III is available in other areas such as the PC. (It is GoG’s game, and I love GoG.)

He bought Witcher III because “it is a big game, and I don’t have any money to get anything else.” In other words, this hardcore gamer is poor and has no money. He buys Witcher III because the value of it is to pad out the time where he can’t afford games. He hopes to get many games time value out of that one game.

Anyway, will Minecraft ever leave the top ten? That game is doing phenomenal numbers. While people believe Wii Sports didn’t exist and has never existed, Minecraft also proves that better graphics do not make the better game.


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