In a recent email you said that Generation 8 was defined by the question “how do consoles sell in a financial depression?” and that in Generation 9 “we will see how game consoles sell during a time of war”. What exactly did you mean by that, and why do you think so? Are you talking about the economic climate of consoles “warring” with each other, or are you talking about the economic-political climate where the U.S. might actually go to an extended wartime in the near future?
Gen 8 was not a “depression” but a “recession” compared with what is to come. We might think it is a depression now, but we are about to experience a much worse depression in the coming years. The recovery we are experiencing is just a gigantic bubble propped up by 0% (ZERO!) percent interest rates for seven years now. The Fed has been talking about raising rates for years but it hasn’t happened because they know that as soon as they raise rates it will prick that economic bubble and the U.S. will slip into a deeper depression. They will not raise rates any time soon in this election cycle because they want the economy to look as good as possible and they don’t want people to realize that this “recovery” — if people can even call it that — is fake. They are supposed to revisit the possibility of interest rate hikes in about six weeks. What is almost certainly going to happen is that they will once again talk about raising rates but not actually do it and have a fourth round of “quantitative easing”, which is basically the government printing more money and buying bad assets to “ease” the pain. But the longer they hold off on rate hikes, the worse the coming depression is going to be.
Now I”m not ruling out the possiblity of actual war, but it’s likely a lot of average people are going to lose almost everything they have in savings and there is going to be a lot of anger and lack of understanding of the root causes. It’s possible we could see riots in the streets, looting, martial law… who knows. Basically what I’m saying is that we will really see how the game console market reacts to a depression in Gen 9.
Another Glorious Reader.
I’m not being US centric here.
There is economic depression. It is in Japan. It is in China. It is in Saudi Arabia. It is all over the world. There is economic depression in the US if you don’t try to fudge the numbers.
Recessions are momentary downturns. Depressions are like recessions that do not stop. Has the ‘recession’ stopped? Of course it hasn’t.
Unlike others, I choose not to participate in economic bad times. For Malstrom, it is the era of the bull. Let the average people engage in economic bad times. You should engage in ‘good times’.
Will times get worse? They could. But that doesn’t hide the fact that they are bad already. But let us put on our investor hat on. The reason why people get rich is because they do things differently than most other people. Before the recession, people were going, “Things are awesome!” The first people to break with the economic gloom and doom are going to be the rich or future rich people. What many people do not realize is that big companies are sitting on a pile of money waiting to invest it. Things could turn around very fast.
As for war, well, there is always war in the future. Human history will always have war. It’s not odd to say it will occur within the next seven to fifteen years. Europe is a powder keg that may break out into civil wars. In east Asia, you have possibility of war breaking out between China and countries like Japan. The United States could be involved in all or none of them. Russia has been on the war path for quite a while.
How does one sell a game console during war? We have never seen this market environment before. I’m sure we’ll see it soon because each passing year without it means greater probability for it to occur.