Posted by: seanmalstrom | March 9, 2016

The Blue Ocean is messing up the political analysts

Before the Wii was launched, there were many ‘analysis’ of the Wii. In short, the analysts all said the Wii would come in third to Xbox 360 and PlayStation 3. The reason why their analysis was so wrong was because they only analyzed the Red Ocean, not the Blue Ocean. The people who bought the Wii were not part of the traditional gaming market. How do you analyze non-gamers? They couldn’t.

However, businessmen can. Businessmen are the only actual analysts I know who have the capability to analyze non-customers. It is the businessman’s job to convert non-customers into actual customers. This is where wealth is made.

With the US political primaries, it is a most interesting cycle. The Democratic primaries has Hillary Clinton, who seems to be as absurd as a Jeb Bush, winning over Bernie Sanders because of super-delegates.  This isn’t exactly democratic. Still, the Democratic primary voters don’t seem to be cooperating with giving Clinton a simple coronation. These voters could not be analyzed because they were never considered ‘likely voters’ in the first place.

What is more interesting is the Republican primary. The strategy was to have Jeb Bush be the nominee without him winning the base. How do you do that? You use a splitter strategy. Ever ‘not Bush’ vote was to be splittered among 15 candidates. Carly Fiorina was to lock up the Sarah Palin ‘not Bush’ voters. Graham, Patakai, Rubio, and among others were to lock up ‘not Bush’ voters within their own geographical area. For example, in South Carolina, if you were ‘not Bush’, you might have voted for Senator Graham. Huckabee and Sanctorum were to lock up the social conservative votes. Ted Cruz was to lock up the ‘Constitution thumping’ vote. Since the RNC changed the rules so most of the early states were to be proportional, this meant a base candidate could not run away with the nomination. Since the New England big states and West Coast states were last, it was safe for them to be winner-take-all because a movement conservative, most likely hailing from the south or central plains, would be crushed. This is why RNC also has an 8 state requirement for majority of delegates won in a state in order to be considered for nomination. This is how Jeb Bush was to win the Republican nomination despite not winning the base.

Not all plans go the way they are supposed to be. Jeb Bush revealed himself to be a very, very poor candidate. Even back-ups, such as Marco Rubio, don’t seem to be performing that well. But the reason why it all fell apart was because of the candidacy of Trump. Trump, a New Yorker, appeals to the traditional GOP elite north eastern voters. But Trump has been able to run the entire south, excepting Texas, as well as many other states a New Yorker should not win (such as Kentucky or Michigan). Trump has been able to achieve this by running on a ‘Trump stool’ of three policy legs:

One: End of political correctness.

Two: The Wall, Deportation, and large changes to immigration policy

Three: Redoing every trade deal in the name of economic patriotism

This is creating a re-alignment among Republican voters. It remains to be seen if it will create a re-alignment of voters in the General Election.

The more vocally on the wrong side of those three issues a candidate was, the faster they dropped. Jeb Bush was vocally on the wrong side of all three issues, so he is gone. Among the candidates left, Cruz has most successfully co-opted the above three in illusion. The third one, the trade deals, is one Cruz is very weak on, and it will likely be his undoing.

The point is that all this analysis was wrong because you cannot analyze non-voters. But non-voters are showing up. Trump is somehow bringing them out, some are even coming out to vote against Trump too. This is why merely using the ‘likely voters’ model will not work during a Blue Ocean phenomenon. Consider this with a General election analysis when they come (and they will come in armadas in a few months).

The primaries have been quite a fun ride, and I cannot wait to see how it ends.



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