Posted by: seanmalstrom | October 10, 2016

Email: “Trump Tape”

Another email:

Hello Malstrom!

It would be nice to read your views about the election while Nintendo doesn’t show the NX. Your thoughts about the Trump’s tape would be more than welcome.

I liked this analisys, hope he’s right:

Dr. Ben Carson’s page on facebook also wrote a very nice post:

You wouldn’t believe the coverage of the US elections by Brazil’s media…

(People should check Scott Adams twitter to see his model girlfriend who is half his age. That’s my type of guy! hahahaha)

When a campaign is losing, they try to do ‘kill shot’ October surprises such as this video. It tells us the Clinton campaign is in very big trouble.

Ohio is a bellwether, and it has pretty much been abandoned by the Clinton campaign (aside from a few token visits). when I saw people trash Ohio as ‘too white’ or whatever, it tells me that Clinton is not going to win it. But Obama won Ohio twice. In 2012, Obama won Ohio by three points. Why was Ohio ‘enlightened’ then but today is ‘full of white people’? It reeks of sour grapes.

There has been a stealth pullout of Clinton from Florida. In 2012, Obama won Florida by less than 1% of a point.

The Clinton campaign has pretty much given up on Iowa.

So you have Trump at about 258 + the states Romney carried. Add in a couple more states and the election is over.

The Trump tape was likely saved for closer to election date. But Clinton was falling more and more behind. The coordination with certain GOP politicians (all ‘never-trumpers’) all smell of desperation.

Currently, media polling has been very unreliable. In 2012, the media polling was off except for RAND and LA Times. Gallup was so embarrassed that they no longer do presidential polling. Monmouth was so off in their state polls that they suspended doing them (only recently started doing them again).

The reason we suspect these media polls were wrong is because of the polling samples. The LA Times poll, which correctly had Obama +3 which was the election result, has a different methodology where they use the same sample every time.

Virginia’s polling was way off in 2014. Again, the problem was with the samples. It is tricky to assume how many Republicans, democrats, and independents come out to vote election day. However, depending on the state you can make assumptions. In Pennslyvania, there are way more Democrats than Republicans. But in Texas, there are more Republicans than Democrats. But in Virginia, voter registration doesn’t identify party. Is the Virginia electorate going to be D +10 or D+1 or R +5? They don’t know. Just flipping Virginia would give the election to Trump.

Presidential elections also have three times to vote. There is absentee voting, early voting, and election day voting. Depending on the state, some parties dominate absentee voting or another at election day. What political analysts do is to look at THE DATA (these are not polls) and to use it as indications. In Florida, Democrats dominate absentee and early voting but Republicans dominate election day. In 2012, Democrat gains in early voting and absentees were not enough for Republicans to overcome on election day. However in 2016, we can already see Republican requests and returned for absentees outpacing the Democrat ones. This indicates that there is large Republican enthusiasm in the Florida electorate. It is why some watches are already declaring Florida to Trump. They would look at voter registrations in Cleveland, Ohio, and see all the new Republican registrations to say, “Democrats cannot get enough votes from Cleveland. Ohio is going to go Republican for sure.”

You can tell much about the election by where the money is spent and where the candidates are traveling.

Clinton advertising is omnipresent and can’t really be determined. So much money is spent, there is Clinton advertising in California. But does that tell us anything? No. What about Trump’s ad money?

Trump Campaign has dropped or re-allocated advertising in Ohio, Florida, and North Carolina. Seeing that NC was won by Romney, FL won by Obama by less than 1%, and Ohio declared ‘too white’ by the Clinton campaign, we could assume that those three states are seen as confident Trump win states.

Trump is currently in Pennsylvania at this moment. He’ll be in Maine on Saturday while doing a touchback of FL, OH, and NC. Pence will be in Virginia and Iowa.

Hillary Clinton is currently in Michigan at this moment. Why is she in Michigan of all places? You have the usual suspect of states, but why is Chelsea Clinton campaigning in Minnesota or Wisconsin?

I think the state of the race is reflecting the LA Times poll at the moment: Trump +3. Trump +3 would mean Trump would be confident in Ohio and adventuring to nearby Michigan and Pennslyvania (which he is doing so), and Clinton would be writing off Ohio. I see they are sending Obama in to North Carolina.

As far as the Trump tape goes, I think it is already forgotten.

If Hillary Clinton was so far ahead if bad sampled media polls suggested, then there wouldn’t be a need or fuss over an old Trump tape. I look at Nate Silver’s twitter, and he doesn’t seem happy. If Clinton is so far ahead in the polls, then there should be happiness and laughter coming from the Democrat politicians and their friends. Instead, I sense panic.


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