Posted by: seanmalstrom | October 25, 2016

What Analysts Guess the Nintendo Switch Price to be…

It’s been a long time since I’ve read anything said by analysts. I can think for myself, and I trust my thoughts and instincts better. I had no idea they said what they said.

Do you want to know what they said? Of course you do. Let us listen, together…

As ever, the biggest factor in the Switch launch and its chances for success could be its price. “Price pretty much depends on specs, and success depends on both price and specs. If the specs are close to PS4, I think they can price around the same ($249), and at most $299. If specs are weaker, price could be lower,” noted Wedbush Securities’ Michael Pachter.

“Assuming they are close to PS4, they are making porting of games easy for developers (and inexpensive), and I think they will get a lot of third party support. If the specs are weaker, porting will be costly and less likely to occur. So my ‘prediction’ is that if specs and pricing are similar to PS4, the Switch will get a lot of third party support and will be immensely successful. If specs are weaker or if pricing is too high, sales will suffer because of lack of third-party support or because of uncompetitive pricing.”

Oh, that Pachter. A game console is two out of three things….

1: Powerful
2: Cheap
3: Small

Pick two.

Nintendo always chooses CHEAP and SMALL. Pachter would love for Nintendo to put out a powerful console at a cheap price (which is impossible) so Nintendo puts it out at a loss. Not going to happen, Pachter.

Switch is not interested in competing or being anything near the PS4. Switch wants to differentiate. But seeing how long it takes games to come out this generation, the reason why people are excited for a portable Skyrim is because there will be no new Elder Scrolls successor this generation. Games take too long to make now!


Analysts agreed that $299 really is the highest Nintendo could acceptably go. “They must find a way to release the Switch at US$299 to stand a chance, that’s the threshold,” said Toto. “It’s not impossible by offering the device in multiple versions, i.e. without the home dock. ‘Hardcore’ video game fans can, at US$299, already get fantastic devices from Sony and Microsoft. The portable gaming use case, at scale, has been taken over by smart devices.”

“It is likely that Switch will be capable of displaying 4K video content and judging by the pricing of the original Shield tablet is likely to sit in the $250-$300 range”
Piers Harding-Rolls

SuperData’s van Dreunen added that a high profile bundle, like Zelda, which we know is a launch title, could play an important role in incentivizing consumers. “I’m hoping they’ll keep it under $300, ideally bundled with a Zelda or Mario Kart. Anything over that will severely limit its market potential,” he said.

Harding-Rolls sees $300 as the max as well, commenting, “The reveal suggests it is competing more significantly with traditional home consoles, but with the edge of mobility. Pricing will need to be competitive in this context and anything over $300 may not be a convincing proposition.” He pointed to similarities with Nvidia’s Shield as evidence that Nintendo may very well end up in that price range.

“The new console shares a number of design, positioning and component similarities with Nvidia’s Shield tablet. As such it is likely that Switch will be capable of displaying 4K video content and judging by the pricing of the original Shield tablet is likely to sit in the $250-$300 range,” he said.

Emailer said, “$200 is wishful thinking.” But look at what the analysts have said. They are saying $250-$300 range with $300 the most expensive it can be. AND they mention the Nvidia Shield like I did.

Should I be flattered or concerned that I talk like the analysts now?



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