Here we go!
Hello Master Malstrom,
you asked about non american reaction/questions about Trump election.
So here is one from a Brazilian who leaves in Australia.
First I don’t know if Americans know but everyone is following their election, all my Brazilian and Australian friends were following the elections more than their own country election. Also everyone is surprised that Trumps won, I was expecting since I follow your blog from a long time and you showed the LA poll which predict him to win.
A lot of people think is a very weird election system because of delegation system, pretty much just 2 candidates and a weird date for election (Thursday).
Also a lot of people now are afraid the world will enter a huge recession because of Trump.
So my question is what do you think? Trump will damage US economy?
No. The financial landscape will change due to the legal landscape. In countries with dictators, you have a very bizarre legal landscape which is why people do not invest in those countries. Who would invest in North Korea? A legal landscape would mean property rights and all that jazz.
Markets like certainty. The financial markets desire a stable legal landscape. One reason why the United States attracts so much investment capital is because of its legal stability. This is true for many other countries too.
The markets will like Trump probably more than any other president. Trump is a businessman like they are. One of his key signatures of legislation will be a drop in the corporate tax rate (to encourage company growth and companies to locate to US). Investors do not see Trump as anti-growth. They are going to be extremely spirited and even fascinated because one of their own is in the White House.
The president investors were very nervous about was Obama. There was no telling what he would do or what his philosophy was. As soon as he got elected in 2008, the companies began pulling back, began laying people off, and started a long hold pattern. Obama has not provided a stable legal environment for business. To give you an example, the Affordable Care Act (passed on a Christmas Eve), completely upended the health care industry and affected every employer in the country. Suddenly, companies couldn’t have employees work past 30 hours or else they had to pay certain health benefits. The new norm since then has been people getting multiple part time jobs instead of one job where they work 40 hours.
Steven Wynn (a Trump business competitor) gave us a window into that mindset.
I’m afraid to do anything in the current political environment in the United States.” We read:
The Wynn CEO said he and others are “frightened to death about all the new regulations,” particularly the prospect of escalating health-care costs.
“My customers and the companies that provide the vitality for the hospitality and restaurant industry in the United States of America, they are frightened of this administration,” he said, “and it makes you slow down and not invest your money.”
Wynn is not just speaking for his company, but of other companies too. From a financial context, Obama was very unstable. And from that same financial context, Trump is seen as extremely stable, perhaps the most stable of any American president ever (meaning Trump is a businessman who they trust will do good for business).
Is the video game industry growing by leaps and bounds during this Eighth Generation? It isn’t. You don’t hear Pachter and the analysts squealing over delight of the PS4 sales. They can see the numbers. There is stagnancy.
My point is that the US economy has not been in a good place lately. There is much economic pain out there. You ask, “Do you think Trump will cause US to go into recession?” I respond: “he got elected because the US is already in recession.”
Take a look at this lead story on Bloomberg about how optimistic the markets are today:
“People are going through the possibilities about what Washington looks like today and what Washington can do or not do for them,” said John Manley, who helps oversee about $233 billion as chief equity strategist for Wells Fargo Funds Management in New York. “Corporations feel there’s a less restrictive hand. People may take that as a positive. It’s the end of the uncertainty.”
I bolded the above. I like finance sites because they tend to focus on the money and not on the political bullshit. Manley says it is the ‘end of uncertainty’. What was the uncertainty? The financial uncertainty was Obama. Now that he is leaving without a successor to continue the exact same policies, the market is excited. What else could he be referring to as the uncertainty?
Another email: From a Brazilian Libertarian
Master Malstrom, congratulations on your successful election prediction.
Here is my point of view from BRAZIL.
1- I fully respect your opinion and presumable support for Trump due to the fact it is based on facts – as opposed to 90% of those who voted for him, who chose to do so for what I call, for the lack of a better word, as “ego” (more about that later). I do not see feasibility on some of his promises, such as bringing industry jobs back to America (are you willing to pay for the exceeded labor cost?) and the infamous “wall” (which sounds like science fiction and absolutely unpayable, but let’s see how he handles it). His involvement on the Fed, as you described, also sound more like a conlifct of interest then a solid proposal that may provide benefits to the American people.
Legislation has already been passed to fund money to build a FENCE around the southern border. I believe this legislation was part of the amnesty deal in the 1980s. The amnesty happened, but the fence was never built. The point is that this is a very OLD issue. Republican base has been despondent that their elected representatives keep bullshitting them on the border security. Trump saw this as an opportunity to make his political debut. While Cruz and Rubio were debating what legislation they started, Trump would just say, “I will build a wall.” The wall nearly single handed won him the primary.
George W. Bush’s lax actions on immigration cost him Congress in 2006. Highly conservative districts were voting Democrat because they were pissed off with Republicans. This continued in 2008. In 2010, you have the ‘Tea Party’ phenomenon where many Republicans were elected to Congress, but they were being taken out in the primary. The House Majority Leader lost his primary to a newcomer with no political experience, an economics teacher named Brat, entirely on the issue of immigration. Trump knows his entire political life and death will hang on this issue.
The immigration issue is extremely highly volatile within the Republican base, and the Republican base sees the immigration issue as a nexus of other issues: economics, national security, etc. One of the 9/11 terrorists was caught beforehand by an immigration enforcement officer.
There is going to be a distinction made between immigrants and colonists. Immigrants are wanted, colonists are not. The difference is that immigrants come in wanting to assimilate into America. The colonists would be trying to create their own country inside America, with its own language and customs. The wrath is going to be against the colonists.
2- Added to that: Globalization changed everything, and Americans should adapt. Like Stephen Colbert once said to the Chinese ambassador, right next to G.W. Bush: “Your great country makes our Happy Meals possible”. Do you really think reverting back to the 70s and 80s is feasible now? Have you seen that comedy movie “Gung Ho”, about the Japanese auto industry taking over? Can Trump REALLY make it come back AND make it economically feasible?
Free Trade only works when it is enforced. It worked after World War 2 because every other nation was rebuilding. It worked for the British Empire because British controlled the seas with their mighty fleets. I do not know details of ancient economies, but we do know that the Roman Empire flourished with wealth. While the Roman Empire had free trade, they also had legions that went around and enforced things.
The ‘Never-Trumpers’ of the GOP are actually the Free- Traders. The only reason why Trump did well in the Rust Belt, which won him the election, was due to not running as a Free-Trader. This ‘economic nationalism’ of Trump is being misreported as something ‘new’. But it is the same economic policy as George Washington, John Adams, Thomas Jefferson, Abraham Lincoln, and the list goes on.
Anyone who says globalism is a new thing that began a couple decades ago has absolutely no sense of history.
Take the American engineer. He not only has to compete for an engineering job against other Americans, but he has to compete against everyone else in the world (such as Indians). Now, can he apply for an engineering job in India? The answer is no. India only allows Indians to go for Indian engineering jobs. Why is it OK for India to do this, but not for the US? This is what is referred to as a ‘bad deal’, e.g. the US being taken advantaged from.
If one country engages in ‘free trade’, and another country does not, it is not an equal trading relationship.
3- While his promises of conducting the internal economy are an improvement on the same old plan the democrats seem to defend (having the internal debt become a Keynesian Ponzi Scheme to finance populism), I cannot believe he is indeed the best person to do it. What is he providing to the political scenario that Ron Paul did not provide eight years ago? Impossible-to-achieve commercial protectionism? War with Muslims?
Libertarians (such as Ron Paul) are not nationalists. Trump, though, campaigned on economic nationalism.
4- Here in Brazil, we had a socialist party take over the country under a populist agenda that was similar in tone with Trump’s, and got to the “ego” of the uneducated and those who are poor but are not willing to take responsibility for it (which, and forgive me if you disagree, sounds a lot like those Trump supports who want their blue collar jobs back). It was a complete and utter disaster, corruption spread all over, inflation took over and our country got into a deep recession. After being convicted of letting public banks take responsibility for spending that was responsibility of the state (which is against our law), our socialist president was impeached and things are slowly getting back on track. My point is: I fear Trump mostly because he is a populist, shady figure who achieved political power that reflects so closely what Latin America has gone through (and there are no left wing and right wing politicians, there are only those who want the state to increase, or to REALLY increase).
There is no fear of Trump bringing, in your words, “complete and utter disaster, corruption spread all over, inflation took over and… deep recession” because this is the current situation of the United States, at least perceived from the Trump voter. Trump’s general campaign message was anti-corruption. An email at the bottom of this post is someone in the Rust Belt who says what happened.
Trump is a wildcard. But Hillary Clinton’s unfavorable ratings are so high because she is perceived to be so highly corrupt. The historical pattern is that in economic distress, the American voter will keep switching out politicians for outsiders until the economy gets better.
If Romney didn’t run as a free-trader, he would have won the 2012 election. He would have won Ohio (lost by three points, Trump won by nine(!)), and he may have won some other Rust Belt states as well.
The fear of Trump bringing in economic Armageddon will not be imagined by these Trump voters because they are already living in economic Armageddon. The Rust Belt has its name for a reason.
Keep in mind that Clayton Christensen, of disruption fame, predicts that Silicon Valley will be the next Detroit.
My two most important points are:
5- People don’t vote due to political or economical agendas (well, most don’t, you are one exception for sure). No. They vote due to what I call their “ego”. Human beings are motivated to increase their ego anyway they can (buying stuff, showing off the e-peens, Facebook and selfies, etc), and when nothing works, they “project” their identity in something else. People define a side in the battle (liberal, conservative, etc), and project themselves with anything that represents that side (a candidate, a political party; you’ll find those in fanatic sports fans as well, and also with hardcore gamers defending their love for Sony and Microsoft). So it’s not Trump who won. It’s “them” who won. It’s their “ego” who won. It goes for the other side as well. This is why you see so many videos of people being asked of WHY they support Trump, Hillary or Bernie Sanders, and no one actually giving a concrete answer (as you did).
Maybe that is how they vote in Brazil, but in America they most definitely do vote based on economic interests. Ask George H. Bush who said, “Read my lips, no new taxes,” raised taxes, and he was outed by a complete outsider called Bill Clinton.
6- The internet and social media has created silos of “ego safety” for people’s political views that are increasingly dangerous. You select your friends and from where you’re getting your information. You’re not “out there”, living, anymore. No. You create a bunker of liberalism, a bunker of conservative, a bunker of libertarians, a bunker of feminism, and you keep reading those again and again, and feeding your “ego” with repeated knowledge not based on facts or different points of view. This is why the general model of democracy is rotten to the core and so many election upsets are been seen all around the world. We have created a massive army of “hardcore e-peen ego” addicts who interfere in a democratic process that was originally designed to be about debating ideas and choosing the best. We can’t do it anymore. But the main point is: we don’t NEED to. This rotten democratic model is no longer necessary in a society in which free trade and self-regulation can be accomplished successfully due to our ethical, moral and technological advances. You’re saying Trump is a good choice, my question is: why do we even need a Trump in power anyway?
Trade is dependent on military strength. The Roman Empire fell when its legions could be bribed and trade suffered from raiders. No one signs up to the military for ‘Free Trade’. They sign up for nationalism.
And finally, as a lighter side, 7- Here in Brazil, we are told and explained about the electoral system (and why a candidate may lose the popular vote and win the election) again and again. No one cares, no one remembers, and most don’t understand. In four years we’ll be told again, in simplistic, childish charts, how it works.
The candidates do not even campaign for the popular vote.
In the primaries, they campaign for delegates in a similar manner as the electoral vote.
Here is a Canadian email.
“Oooohhhhhhh…..” says the reader.
*Malstrom unfolds the paper.*
Hush, you! Let us see what this Canadian is saying…
Canadian here. Our reaction has mostly amounted to “what the fuck, guys?” Also a degree of worry about what it means to us. America is by far our biggest trading partner and protectionism will damage our economy. However Justin Trudeau and the Liberal Party have been cozying up to China recently, so they were probably looking to diversify a little more just in case anyways. There’s a little bit of hope as well because pipelines are a problem in our country and Trump and the Republicans running things may mean Keystone XL is back on the table. We’re worried but also we have to wait and see like everyone else.
Personally, I think I more or less get what’s happened, I’ve actually spent a lot of time talking to Americans and Europeans over my life. Americans as a group of people are bred to be more paranoid (the government is evil, immigrants are evil, other religions are evil, someone who thinks differently than me is evil), to think they’re uniquely special (which means that no one else can do anything better than them because they’re America, which leads to America trying to waste resources inventing a wheel that maybe someone else has already perfected, and since America is wealthy they don’t have to bother listening to anyone else if they don’t want to) and that they have to fight for everything (because the country was founded on fighting). The evil government represented by both parties wasn’t fighting for enough American people with American ideas and values, so someone who told Americans what they wanted to hear (regardless if it’s realistic or not) helped them fight the evil government.
I think a lot of America’s worst fears feel silly to those of us who already live in countries where we actively do those things and we haven’t devolved into a nightmare dystopia, but then again we also don’t have the geopolitical pressure of trying to maintain #1 status, a system of capitalism that isn’t working so well anymore, and a world that’s been rapidly changing as much as it has over the last few decades, so I’m not always sure if I wouldn’t think the exact same if I was an American.
I also feel especially bad for third party voters. I voted third party both times I’ve voted in our election and came up opposition the first time and voting for the eventual government the second time (even if my vote didn’t count because my riding went elsewhere). We still get shrieking about the “vote-splitting” but it makes our democracy feel healthier with more choices, and ultimately vote splitting is only a real thing if you think in right vs left. I’m seeing American friendships end because the blame is being placed on the people who voted for Gary Johnson, and that just seems awful because American democracy could probably use more choices.
Trump is essentially a third party candidate who won the Republican nomination. Trump wasn’t even a Republican ten years ago.
I wonder if non-Americans understand the primary elections. The primaries are where the ideological fun is at. The general election is more boring.
There is much shrieking about third party candidates ‘giving the election to Trump’. But that is not how things work. If the third party candidate was not there, that prior voter may not have voted at all. And that voter may go to another candidate no one considered. You cannot add up third party votes to first party and say, ‘this would have happened should that candidate not run’. When Jeb Bush dropped out, it was expected this votes would go to anti-Trump candidates. Some did. But some went to Trump too.
Hello, Master Malstrom!
You asked for opinions and observations from non-Americans. I am from Austria, but I hardly follow the local news, so I can’t really tell you anything about how Austrian media outlets and politicians reacted to Trump’s win. However, I pick up on news aired on German TV channels which I watch a lot more, so I can tell you about that, and it should definitely be more interesting for you and your readers, because Germany not only has ten times the population of Austria and therefore has more relevance in world politics by default, but it’s also the country who is essentially in charge of the EU. Besides, I’d imagine that Austria’s take on the American election would be mostly identical with Germany’s reaction in the big picture anyway, so it’s basically redundant to spend time talking about my own country or make the effort to look up how they reacted. Also, Austria seemingly can’t elect its own president, but that’s a story for another time.
Shocking is the word that describes Trump’s victory best. The German media broke down statistical data of American voters, but they struggled to find a more thorough explanation for what happened. They expressed concerns because far-right parties of various European countries were the first to congratulate Trump and likened Trump’s populist approach very much to what said European parties did to gain a significantly increased mindshare over the course of the past couple of years. I do not quite agree with that point of view because Trump has the republican party behind him and that one doesn’t seem anywhere close to those far-right European parties who give off vibes of having an underlying admiration for nazi ideologies.
The reactions of German politicians were not enthusiastic. Chancellor Merkel gave a short speech to remind Trump to respect humans regardless of their sex, race, religion etc. Germany’s foreign minister didn’t want to congratulate Trump and instead stated that it’s a result that must be accepted. Overall, there was much uncertainty about what Trump’s victory really means, mainly because Trump has yet to announce more concrete plans of all the things he is going to do and how that is going to affect Germany, the EU and the NATO. It’s a calm and collected wait and see approach at the moment. Unexpected result for the American election, but nobody is panicking.
Lastly, as far as noteworthy media are concerned, I watched a discussion round that featured a diverse range of stances. For large parts of the broadcast, it didn’t really go anywhere because nobody, regardless of being pro- or anti-Trump, had a good idea of what Trump is going to do. The only somewhat interesting part was the feminist who repeatedly pushed the notion that white men without college education accounted for the biggest chunk of Trump’s votes and that’s because they feel threatened and afraid of empowered women like Hillary Clinton, and Donald Trump embodies “the man” who she (the feminist) thought would be a thing of the past. That was amusing.
Now for my personal opinion on the American election, I have barely any interest in politics and have never gone to an any election in my country. But I read your blog on a regular basis and went through your whole very long post that predicted Trump to win. You had me convinced, so I too expected Trump to win. Since I am a mean-spirited person, I entered the election thread on the gaming forum I frequent to rile up people with the controversial stance that Trump can win this thing, and later on that day when the results started to trickle in, I could engage in Schadenfreude because of the crazy over the top reactions. Yes, you said that your readers shouldn’t take pleasure in doing that, but I don’t see it the same way. I view it as kind of a therapy for people who get so emotionally invested, if I slap them for blindly subscribing to conventional wisdom (I do the same on gaming topics). To be clear, I don’t mock them in the most despicable manner, but even if it’s on the more playful side, I consider it an act of Schadenfreude nonetheless, because I enjoy taking jabs at flawed thinking. Some people get around to realize that they got too deeply invested, others don’t. I suppose my goal is to have a greater number of people to talk to who exercise more critical thinking in response to what the internet feeds them. Either that, or I am just mean.
I do not mind Trump winning the election. I am pretty sure that I prefer him over Clinton. I do not think the world is going to end. I do not think things will get significantly worse for Europe. The chance that things are going to get better is actually bigger. If Trump could win by addressing people who were ignored or even insulted by the political establishment, then the parties in power over here might rethink their tactics of branding people who vote for far-right parties automatically as idiots and simpletons (which the Clinton campaign did to people who were supporting Trump). I’d rather have the commanding parties over here get their immigration politics in check than have far-right parties rise to power, because they are not comparable to Trump’s populism.
There has been a re-alignment in even ideologies. Trump has moved the Republican Party into a Nationalist Party. The far right parties of Europe probably cheered because they view themselves as nationalist parties (as opposed to globalist).
The pollsters didn’t mess up. The pollsters intentionally put their thumb on the scale.
Looking back at this video in hindsight, you are struck by how STUPID and a WASTE OF TIME all this is. You are taking polls, putting them in some sort of soup, as if it shows something, and yakking about largely nothing. Here is an image of that map:
Pollsters didn’t get it wrong, they committed fraud. I knew the polling at the time, including some internal polling. The actual state of the race then was:
LEAN GOP: UT, OH (Clinton had largely abandoned OH), IA
TOSS UP: NV, AZ, NM, CO, MN, WI, MI, PA, VA, NC, FL
When you see maps like this, no wonder Democrats were so excited for the election. Even if Trump won those ‘toss up’ states, the 57 added to 174 meant he couldn’t win the election. So the Democrats must have been thinking, “Oh boy, how big is Trump going to lose?” How can someone put Utah up as a toss-up?
Trump was never majorly behind during this race. I do know that he was closing in on 270 electoral votes right when the Access Hollywood tape came out. That tape was planned later, but Trump was gaining momentum. From what I saw of internal polling, it was known that a narrow victory within several large states would be the way to go. Now, it was assumed that if all went well, all those narrow victory states would go Trump’s way. If Trump did badly, Clinton would get narrow victories in all those toss ups I list above. That was the actual race, but what was being reported was that the race wasn’t even competitive! Why was this being done?
I know Trump’s internal polling was very different from the map above. So why were the media polls so off?
Another question: why are the polls always off toward the Democratic candidate? It is statistically impossible for it all to go one way. Wikileaks says there was collusion.
Fuck these pollsters.
Hi, I’m a 37 year old heavy duty mechanic from bc canada. I work a full time job and run my own business (a HD service truck). I viewed this election from the viewpoint of a business man making a focused attack on the political incumbents. Trump was the anti-establishment outsider making an attack based on values outside of the traditional political sphere. He is not a dumb guy, despite what the media portrays, and I believe he ran a phenomenal campaign in the blue ocean. By appealing to values outside of the political mindset he seemed to shrug off attacks from the establishment on his campaign, as they did not understand the market he was appealing to. Very similar to when hydraulic excavators came on the scene, the customers were mocked and berated by the cable powered excavator incumbents. The same was witnessed when the Wii came on the scene and it’s customers were called casuals, dumb, etc. Now we see Trumps “customers” labeled as racist, uneducated, etc. I found it quite interesting watching the shocked faces as each states tally came in… we’ve seen this so many times in history, you can’t analyze a market which is unknown in its breadth or depth. The media here seems to be in line with the analysts so no special revelations from that angle up north here. Is it true he will melt our great ice wall if we don’t renegotiate NAFTA? Yours truly, from Canada.
It’s pretty certain that Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio, and Jeb Bush could never have pulled off what Trump did.
TL;DR: Brexit 2.0.
I am having a bit to much fun with all the insanity – I know, I need help and am getting it – but I thought I would write in because the response from the result here in the UK is interesting to me.
All my friends do not know how this could have happened. One of them had to have me explain that coverage of Trump was so slanted one way and support was so demonised that any supporters would not speak. Nor did they need to when he won. Happy people do not say they are happy. They just are. Well that and you get called horrible things.
The news is completely bias and fails to understand the meaning of the demographic breakdown and as a result being able to disagree with some things a candidate says and not all and still vote for them.
And it is the end of the world.
I feel a bit left out of the rage. It is sad. I am calm and content.
If I have a regret, it is not placing money on the outcome.
Things seem like they will be heading interesting places. Putin and Trump seems like they will actually work really well together.
I don’t really have more opinions on things yet, this will be all for now.
Thank you for your time, your pieces on all of this are a joy to read and I thank you for your insight.
Here is the video you put in your title about Lisa Simpson predicting a President Trump:
It shows that Trump was enough of a celebrity then to be parodied as president.
Hello there monsieur Malstrom ;) long time no writing you. But I do always read your blog.
So, as a Mexican, what does people around me think about Trump winning? the usual: “He hates mexicans!” “he is as crazy as hitler!” and so on. People is worried about him making a huge wall like he said. Correct me if I am wrong but I really doubt he would do such thing. It will cost a lot and gave the US a high debt. But I do believe he will make some big changes when it comes to both legal and illegal immigration. Thank God I got my US visa a few months ago hehe
But my US friends and relatives are the ones that are really having a huge meltdown. One of my cousins wrote a huge wall-o-text in facebook about how he hold her “brown daughter” and tell her that “the country where she was borne will treat her a like a criminal”. I was really trying not to make a snarky remark. Other friends, one of them a cuban living in Miami, wrote that he was going to move back to Cuba (hah! yeah right!). Another one, a texan living in brownsville, was very upset and wrote another wall saying that Trump won because white privilege. I really hate every time says that, if you’re white your opinion is not valid. I replied him and told him that many of the people that voted for him were white unemployed males that never finished their education or had a chance for it. He got upset and even told me that how I could support Trump if I was a mexican. It’s funny how Facebook make people waaaay to sensitive don’t you think?
I really get sick of all the childish “analysis” from the mainstream media. One black anchorman said that he they were experiencing a “whitelash” and that he may move to Canada. Yahoo keeps spewing liberal crap all day. All the hollywood elites are crying and calling everybody that didn’t vote for clinton a misogynist and a racist. A dark part of me wanted him to win just to see the media, in both the US and Mexico, make tantrums.
Will he be a good president? I don’t know and let’s face it, nobody does. He can’t really as bad as our president who is a media puppet.
In another stuff, you got a Turbografx!? you lucky bastard! I knew about it with the Wii VC and I have been looking for a console here in Mexico but it’s extremely rare to find one and if you do they ask almost as a PS4! I agree with you that it really hits the middle spot between the NES and the SNES/Genesis. I hope to get one someday. By the way, I don’t remember you ever mentioning the Sega Genesis? I have one and it’s one of my favorite consoles. What are your thoughts? I always agreed when it comes to videogaming.
Anyway, take care and I’ll keep reading your blog as always!
I’ll be getting to the Genesis soon enough.
During the primary, CNN actually did an interesting video on the Wall. (Interesting because they talked about the Wall in technical terms as opposed to political.)
Look! A reporter actually asked civil engineers instead of pulling ideas out of his ass.
Trump is an expert on construction (he has built skyscrapers). I do not think he would suggest something that couldn’t technically be done. But if the wall is to be made, he is going to have to break ground on it in a few months.
I am Brazilian and libertarian. I think Trump will not be able to do the things he promised. Building a wall separating Mexico means losing a low-cost worker, and no one wants to pay dearly for someone to clean their toilet or sweep their driveway. Building an Iphone within America means having an expensive product, the rest of the world would buy things from Samsung rather than buying expensive things made by Americans.
If Trump insists on this protectionism, it will be great for us, we can be more competitive and sell cheaper products to other countries.
Ford and General Motors have factories in Brazil, if he insists on wanting to stop it, we’re going to work for Honda, Renault or FIAT. If the Xbox comes more expensive, we will buy Playstation.
Xbox won’t be around too much longer as a console.
About American women. I live in Rio de Janeiro, I know several Americans who come to spend their vacations here. They are not very sexy, they wear men’s shoes and clothes without necklines, their bikinis look like my grandmother’s panties.
Long time reader, first time emailer.
I’m really enjoying your series of articles about the TG-16 and its library. In your IP Strategy article you posted recently, you said the TG-16 failed in the west due to marketing problems. I want to know more about that, not only about the historical facts that led the TG-16 to a failure in America, but also the essential differences that exists between Wii U marketing problems and TG-16 marketing problems.
What I see is that both consoles have marketing problems, but Wii U doesn’t even have a library to save it, while TG-16 does have it, but still failed anyway.
I really want to understand how much marketing helps a console to sell. Sony and Microsoft consoles had a lot of marketing influence (I guess). Hell, Sony’s marketing even created a whole culture, the hardcore-gamer-nerd culture. Obviously, that hardcore feeling existed before Sony’s entrance in the market, but Sony made its name solely on that, it’s notable.
On Trump, I can confirm what the brazilian emailer said. The whole brazilian press is just a Hillary Clinton cheerleader team. But I don’t believe all this Clinton cheering was just wishful thinking, I think that this was marketing. They didn’t just BET on Clinton, they where consciously trying to INFLUENCE people to vote for her or, in the case of Brazilian people, to add on that worldwide noise that was saying Trump is this and that and Hillary is the angel and the queen and the mother of us all. So I don’t just think these political analysts where just “wrong”, I think they are all dirty.
But it really scares me the proximity of Trump with Russia.
Greetings from Brazil and sorry for my English!
Writing more on depth on TG 16’s marketing problem is a great idea. However, I also do not believe TG 16 ever had the games to become a mainstream Western system. What happened with the SNES is very telling. The SNES had a great launch line up of fantastic games such as Castlevania IV or Super Ghosts and Goblins. Then the SNES fell behind the Genesis in NA. What Nintendo realized is that they needed more of the ‘mainstream’ type games. They needed the sports games (which Genesis had). They needed the awful license kids games. They needed the shovelware.
Just for you to have an idea of the media US elections coverage here in Brazil, here is a video of the biggest TV channel in the country.
I’ll translate for you:
“You referred to the mantras of Donald Trump, some unpronounceable but since he is the virtual president let’s repeat them: ‘WE HATE MUSLIMS, WE HATE BLACKS, DISGUSTING’.”
Yes, she said this AS A QUOTE for Donald Trump words hahaha…
They lied so much about him they start to believe their own lies and became natural to them to think that Trump is a real monster and said absurd things he never did.
Cute newscaster! Sometimes, it is a good thing I do not know what she says…
Here in Brazil there is no difference between the media and the Democratic Party propaganda, it’s hilarious, seriously. If the election were in Brazil, Hillary would be elect with 500+ EV. What is even more absurd is that even the more conservative in the media don’t like Trump and would prefer Hillary. They curse the Workers Party (PT) at the same time they praise the Democratic Party as if they were antagonists, it’s really funny and crazy, because there is absolutely no difference between the two.
Here in Brazil is normal for people to think there is no left in US AT ALL, there is only the right wing, seriously, everyone thinks that way, is common sense. There is a popular expression that says, “in US there is no left, there is only right and even more right”. They think the Democratic party is the same party of JFK, they think the Democratic Party is an economic liberal centre-right party and the Republican Party is the EVIL right wing party. Really, I’m not exaggerating in this. It is really like that.
Here we think Trump is a monster and Hillary and Obama are nice, reasonable and honest people (yes, we think Hillary is HONEST and Obama is MODERATE haha).
The comment the other brazilian guy sent you about cheering up Hillary Clinton was trully remarkable. It was said by a journalist of the mainstream media (liberal of course). It was a miracle she said it, I think she won’t have future there much longer haha…
I’m really relieved with the Trump victory, it will be good for american people (a people I admire A LOT). There is one thing that makes me sad: americans that can’t understand what makes America a really special country, and want to throw this away to become Brazil or Venezuela. I think americans don’t think about this that much because it’s beyond their imagination, the country is too solid, but the danger is real, folks, the Democrats are not here to be nice and reasonable… I just hope americans don’t throw away the best they have for this liberal/communist/globalist utopia.
Good luck with the new Trump era, I think it’ll be good. Sorry about the english.
I wonder if news of Hillary Clinton being under FBI investigation made its way around the world. It was big news here locally.
What isn’t as well known is that Hillary Clinton is in trouble because of the Clinton Foundation, not the emails. The emails are really nothing more than, perhaps, obstruction of justice. If the Clinton Foundation was found to be accepting bribes, that is bad.
Trump plans to release information about the Bushes and the Saudis too. Interesting how Bushes and Trump hate each other.
Dear Master Malstrom,
I was about to say what happened in Brazilian media, but someone was faster than me.
But I would like to add some thoughts:
1) The USC/LA Times thing you said prevented me on trusting fully on polls (and it is funny how NOW the same liberal press are saying this, but it is really sick that, once USC/LA Times nailed in 2012, they NEVER stressed this to the people during election process – I thought journalism was about pursuit and show the truth to people…) . Plus, many people from a forum I partiripate who showed how Democrats were way oversampled in those polls.
2) An other issue is a structural problem with international correspondents: foreign correspondents tends to stay at three places in US: New York (because of its cosmopolitanism, UN HQ and stock market), Washington (where the power is – and IMF HQ during tough times) and Los Angeles (because of Hollywood). The consequences are that they believe that those cities (mainly New York) are representative of the whole country. I didn’t see the results in their respective counties, but I dare to think they voted massively Democrat, as London (other hotspot for international correspondents) voted against Brexit…
3) This was the second time in less than 20 years Democracts lost an election despite having the majority of popular vote. As it would be extremely difficult for making an constitutional ammendment to change that, do you think they will adopt an anti-winner-takes-it-all policy, fighting against it at state-level and try to implement a constitutional district method like in Maine and Nebraska?
One: the most accurate poll now is the PPD poll which was accurate in 2012 and 2016. Even the pollster was on the radio a day or two from the election saying there will likely be surprises in Michigan and Wisconsin.
Two: yeah, they don’t get to see the entire country from just a couple mega-cities. Or Hollywood. I remember one foreigner saying he couldn’t wait to get to America because he thought all American women looked like Britney Spears. He was SO disappointed.
Three: The states will not want to end their ‘winner-take-all’ method. The states like the attention it gives them. And Americans, both Republican and Democrat, are going to be very suspicious to anyone trying to alter the Constitution.
Hi Master Malstrom
Here’s an impression from French-Canada! I will also provide the impression of my boyfriend who is the son of immigants (viet-nam). I kept listening to the radio during the elections and no surprise, it was pro-Clinton advertisement. There’s something interesting to note though; when the station was asking people to call for their impression many people were actually pro-Trump. The radio host was baffled most of the time. I think this is because here, we are ruled by the biggest liberal douche you could ever meet in your life (Justin Trudeau). Maybe it’s some kind of revenge for this that they support Trump, it’s like they live a victory through America. I kinda started to be on the side of Trump myself just because of how the media handled the campaign so unfairly and the arrogance of the stars. Seriously, everyday I was lurking on my FB wall and saw garbage like: The Avengers ask you to not vote for Trump or Robert Deniro acting like a cry baby because Trump is a meany. Our own stars were acting the same way even if nobody can vote! The most interesting part is the after elections. The radio host asked for the impression of pre-selected people (mostly French and Québecois who live in America now) and surprise; nobody was happy that Trump won. Everytime it was like this: host: So what is your feeling about all this? Person: I’m deeply disapointed and think America just voted for a very sick man. It almost felt like nobody actually voted for Trump! There’s only one reporter that actually met actual native French-Americans (I didn’t know their existence) and these people were pro-Trump. I have the feeling that the anti-Trump side is so hysterical in so many ways that they are mostly causing the fear they claim Trump is causing.
Speaking of this, I said that I would share the feelings of my boyfriend as well. He’s not happy about Trump’s victory because of what he said about Mexican immigrants (when he said that Mexico was sending their rapists, thieves and some people that are ok.) Was he refering to what Cuba did during the cold war? It was my first impression when he quoted me this, but my boyfriend cannot accept that someone says something like this (we have different sensitivities for these things). I personnally think it is not a really good sentence but not at the point of thinking it is a hate crime. Most of the time I try to avoid this topic because we aren’t Americans and do not understand the conflict with Mexicans very well (please enlight us) but the point about illegal immigrants is so baffling; we just don’t understand this madness at all. My bf and I have no idea how you guys will handle this. But what is more insulting is the pro-illegal immigrant argument. I don’t know if it’s the same in America but here we justify the presence of illegal immigrants because ”they need these people in hotels and restaurants” So basically illegal immigrants must stay because American need defenseless servants to wash their dishes and clean their shit. That’s bordeline slavery! If America can’t afford to offer a decent life to all its citizens then immigration should decrease and illegal immigration should be taken seriously but I don’t think you should accept the existence of a class of ”servants”. Oh and by the way, the hysteria reached little kids here. Yesterday my boss told me that her 7 years old (who is half latino) didn’t want to go to America for 4 years because they would not let him pass since his skin isn’t white. I told her that there are people 3 times his age that do the exact same kind of juvenile thinking lol.
Yes, they use the same pro-illegal immigrant argument here in the US. What that argument is saying is for a need for an Underclass to serve an Overclass. So terrible.
Those Trump’s comments, which came when he announced his candidacy, is referring to a sort of ethnic cleansing some countries are doing. Since America has no immigration enforcement, anyone can walk across the border. Some countries are opening their prisons and pushing the people they do not want to America. When in America, some of them do violent crimes multiple times. Yet, they are not deported.
Hello Master Malstrom,
Here’s a reaction from a Finn.
The election was a massive deal here. In the media it was sometimes even called the most important election in Finnish history! Just as in most of Europe, the local mainstream media took the cue from the US mainstream media. Clinton was thus portrayed as the saviour of Western democracy, while Trump was the antichrist.
An important factor to note is that foreign policy had a major role in the coverage, as Finland has the longest border with Russia of any EU-state. There is a massive push in the political establishment and in most of the media to get Finland into Nato (Finland is one of the few EU countries not part of the alliance), which a big reason for Trump being seen as a major threat. Even though there has been a whole lot of scaremongering in the press about the Russian bear ever since the Ukraine crisis started (and before that), the Finnish public are not very eager to join NATO (polls suggest that only about 20 % support a Finnish membership). This is largely due to Finns being a quite levelheaded and pragmatic people, who believe that their country should mind its own business and not get into these global military alliances. With the election of Trump, many Finnish politicians and pundits fear that the last bridge into the alliance has been burned. I for one deeply hope for reconciliation between US and Russia, which would consequently lead to a reconciliation between the EU and Russia and (hopefully) an end of the sanctions (they have been very damaging to the Finnish economy). I believe this is the only hope for building a lasting peace in Europe.
Anyway, it was a pure joy to watch the elections from here. The meltdown in the media and among some politicians was comparable to that in the US. What worries me, however, is that many people (most of the people I personally know, actually) really believed in all the things that were said about Trump. They are consequently scared senseless about his presidency. Hopefully the hysteria will calm down in the weeks to come.
So that is my take. I lastly wish to say that I have been reading your blog for some eight years now (since i was 15!), and it has been a great honour. You’ve learned me a lot (about business, politics, critical thinking and life in general) while at the same time being very entertaining. Thanks for everything!
Hmm… It sounds like your politicians wanted to be in NATO because of globalist desires.
Greetings Master Malstrom.
The Swedish reaction to Trump is precisely what I expected. The minister of state, of course congratulated him and said that we value our cooperation with the USA etc. etc. The other party leaders expressed dissapointment and concern about the future. The news that have gotten here has painted him as basically a sexist xenophobe.
On facebook the majority of people see it as an international catastrophe. People are joking about fleeing the planet to mars. They absolutely can’t believe he was elected. Being close to Russia, we’re very concenred about his comments about NATO members paying for membership. The fear is that Russia could be emboldened under his presidency and threathen our Baltic neighbours, and maybe even our brother country of Finland.
Of course all the annoying SD supporters (a party born from neo-nazi movements) love him and are celebrating. Ironically the leader of that party stated that he wouldn’t have voted for either candidate.
I don’t think the Swedish media did a good job of describing the kind of populist rage that exists in the US at the moment. I follow american news for their entertainement value, and to me it seems that the US political system is built so that political machine opinion and donor opinion is so powerful that people opinion always gets left in the dust. It doesn’t seem to have leverage over politicians’ decisions. So people who are not represented just keep getting angrier and angrier when their votes never get them the results they want. That’s why Sanders almost overcame Clinton’s 60 point lead. When he said that he would fight for stuff that American politicians usually never fight for (And that most of us Europeans take for granted like state-run healthcare). And that’s why Trump shredded the establishment republicans. (from my impression of things anyway). The analysts on Swedish media sometimes talk about Trump going against the establishment, but never goes deeper than that. They never try to explain why the establishment has become so hated. And that’s a shame because it’s interesting.
Anyway that’s how it has been so far. even though I disagree with almost everything Trump has ever said, if he actually does suceed in disrupting Wall Street power and somehow makes politicians more accountable to the opinion of the people, he might do your country some good in the long run.
Best of luck!
There is definitely overlap between Sanders and Trump
And now an email from someone in the Rust Belt. Quiet reader! Let us listen:
Wow I was up late.
Watching CBS news, it was obvious they were scrambling to figure out what was going on. Some of the pundits with an obvious liberal bias were on the verge of tears trying to make sense of the Trump lead. All of their info and exit polls were completely wrong. Shock. They did not take into account people like me. I am a silent Trump supporter.
I am a working class guy, from Dayton Ohio. I have always been pretty liberal, from a family of liberals, and I am a veteran. I noticed in the last few months many working class people like me being enthusiastic for Trump, many more Trump signs, more Trump commercials, even all of his huge rallies were streamed on youtube. Flyers in the mail were all from Trump. Hillary Clinton’s vaunted ground game was nowhere to be found. It is like she did not feel she had to explain herself to me, the voter. I told my Mom, who is a Hilary fan, that things would be a lot closer than the polls indicated. When Ohio was projected to be Trump, she said it was because Ohio was no longer as important, that demographics had shifted, but I knew better.
Trump spoke to me. He said stuff like “we have to take care of our veterans”. He made proposals that sounded good to me, about restoring jobs,, repairing the trade imbalances, helping small business, which I am getting ready to start. He espoused an America first policy, and I am an American. The media and some liberals would like to convince people like me that it was all about racism, sexism, xenophobia whatever, but that is not the case.
I challenge anyone from any walk of life, a public figure or not, to let people listen to them talk during their worst moments. I can guarantee none of us are better than what we heard from Trump in some of his worst, most candid moments. People were willing to forgive Trump for these moments because they believed he could help them achieve a better future, for their kids, and grandkids.
Trump reminds me sometimes of my grandfather, now deceased. My grandpa served in WW2, was a medic on Iwo Jima, Guadalcanal, and Saipan. He later went on to have some successful business ventures. To be honest he said things that were not appropriate sometimes, about blacks, gays, jews. He grew up in the depresssion, with extremely racist parents and grandparents. I am saying these things not to excuse them, but because I want to illustrate that they did not paint the whole picture of who he was, of what was actually in his heart. I sometimes saw the nasty side of him, but he never ended up treating people in life based on anything other than their actual merit.
He was a hero to friends and family, a strong businessman who, along with many others, from all walks of life, put this country on his back and made it what it was. I believe the better side of my grandpa won out eventually, putting all of that flawed crap he said and did occasionally into better perspective.
I guess now the question on many minds: Will Trump keep his flaws in check, subordinate himself and work for the people, to be a hero like like my grandpa was?
Every two term administration believes they have ‘permanently’ changed the American electorate. The George W. Bush administration believed that political parties go to the North East to die (Democrat stronghold was the North East which used to be the Republican stronghold when they were a minority party). Ideological beliefs are mostly passed down from parent to child. The Bush Administration believed that abortion meant Democrats having voters and Republicans ultimately multiplying. They believed that the Democratic Party would unlikely ever be a true force again.
Eight years later, we have Democrats singing the same tune of ‘demographics is destiny’. The future would be eternal Democrats with Republicans warring against other Republicans.
I am sure if Trump wins re-election that in 2024, there will be a belief that the electorate has ‘permanently changed’ and that a Democrat will never be elected President again.
And it will be wrong.
One more email because they keep coming:
How are you Master Malstrom?
(I address you as the Teacher, not the bachleor)
I knew he was going to win, but I was surprised by the results. Here were my predictions.
Population eligible to vote: 246.8 Million People(Based on 2015 estimates)
Projected total estimated voters: 134.08 Million voters
Popular Vote: 67.58 Million
Percentage of Voters: 50.4%
Popular vote: 61.7 Million
Percentage : 46.01%
Third Party Stats
Popular Vote: 4.7 Million
Percentage of Voters: 3.5%
The results are quite different from what I expected.
They haven’t completed the counting as of writing this.
Percentage of voters: 47%
Percentage of voters: 48%
Third Party Stats
Percentage of voters: 4.7%
I knew early on that “Blue Collar Conservatives” (a book by Rick Santorum) was what Trump’s Base that would win the election. Basically a large group of non-voting people who are unemployed, who are democrats with more conservative values, and were being ignored by both parties.
Why didn’t my victory numbers match closer to my projections? My projection is based on Trump tapping a population of 14 million people. I only assumed 42% of those 14 million people would show up to vote for Trump. What the hell happened?
It is amazing that the Rust Belt has been ignored for so long.