Posted by: seanmalstrom | January 13, 2017

One Generation is Not the Same As Last

One of the ‘tricks’ investors use to see into the future is to talk to the plebs. In the movie ‘The Big Short’, the bankers (is that what they were?) would go undercover and go among the ‘plebs’. They knew something was wrong when the stripper said, “I own five houses.” They knew the housing market was going to crash then.

The point is that you do the opposite of what the masses do. If news of an investment is on the newspaper, it is too late for it!

In 2007, most people couldn’t imagine a recession. Therefore, it was probable to occur. Today, many people cannot imagine an economic boom. Therefore, it is probable for it to occur. Most people cannot see the future so they are constantly surprised by it.

In video game generations, there is ‘Last Generation Blindness’. It is the thinking that the next generation will be like the last one. Is this true for ANY game console?

When the NES came out, people said, “It will be like Atari and crash.” The president and founder of EA even said that.

When the SNES came out, many assumed it would be another NES. No one anticipated that heavy competition would eat into Nintendo’s market. SNES was not a NES.

But many thought the N64 would be like the SNES. It was most certainly not!

And many thought the Gamecube would be like the N64. Nope!

And now we get to the fun stuff. Analysts and the game industry assumed the Wii would follow the trajectory of the Gamecube. Boy, everyone was wrong!

Wouldn’t the Wii U be like the Wii in part? Nope!

Now I hear ‘brilliant commentators’ say, “The Switch will be like the Wii U.”

Really?

The probability of this is like zero. Game consoles do not follow the patterns of their prior consoles. The Macro-Economics change. The competition changes. The consumers change.

You may think the Switch will fail or succeed, but you are not allowed to think the Switch will ‘be like the Wii U’ because that is NON-THINKING. You aren’t thinking when you do that.

Every generation, we go through this cycle. “3DS will be like the DS.” Nope! “PS4 will be like PS3.” Nope! “PS3 will be like PS2.” Nope! Even the PS1 had competition from Nintendo in America for a while, but PS2 had smooth sailing. “Dreamcast will be like the Saturn.” Not exactly. “Saturn will be like the Genesis.” Nope!

The Switch is going to be DIFFERENT from the Wii U. Of this, we can be certain. If the Switch was like the Wii U, it would go against every pattern in console history. So we can give the probability due that Switch will NOT be like the Wii U.

“Yeah, it will be worse!”

Oh, you are a saucy reader.

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