Nintendo Switch will have sales performance process similar to the Nintendo DS. [process, not volume]
The Nintendo DS launched (first global Nintendo launch) strong, then faded as the PSP outsold it. It was only when the next wave of software a year in with Nintendogs, Mario Kart DS, NSMB DS, Animal Crossing Wild World that the DS began to truly take off (and the DS Lite design).
The Switch launch numbers (around 2 million) are the same as what the Wii launched (but less than Wii U). People will quickly say that the Wii U is outselling the Switch but that is about supply not demand. The Switch will sell well at launch, get a buzz, then die down through the summer. Maybe during the holidays or later it will then really begin to avalanche.
People are already surprised by the new pipelines of software coming out to the Switch. When the software launch was unveiled, people cried. I knew better. Aside from Nintendo’s First Party (with both handheld and home console combined), you have ALL the third party software from handheld consoles coming to Switch (including the PSP and Vita line). There will be too much software. From a handheld perspective, Switch will dominate like the NES. Nintendo has a monopoly on the dedicated handheld market.
Sony is already moving to cut the price of the PS4 in some markets to thwart the Switch. Sony is silly. Switch isn’t competing against the PlayStation 4. Switch is competing against the PlayStation 5. What is Sony going to do as the Switch gains momentum? The PlayStation 5 adding beefier GPUs will make it impossible to be mobile.
Anyone not thinking Switch is Nintendo’s arrow shot at Sony is a fool. Nintendo and Sony are definitely slugging it out. They are both utilizing their companies’ core competencies against one another. Nintendo drove Sony from the handheld market. Now Nintendo’s handheld market is invading the home console market.
The real big test for Nintendo will be their online. They could derail their own system.
As for now, I’ll be going off on a little vacation to play Switch.