Posted by: seanmalstrom | May 30, 2017

Wall Street Journal: “Malstrom was right…”

Let us read the Wall Street Journal together, reader.

“Demand for our NAND flash memory has been overwhelmingly greater than supply, and the situation is likely to stay for the rest of this year,” said a spokeswoman at Toshiba Corp. , the industrial giant that is leaning on flash memory to survive. She cited demand from smartphone makers—Apple and Chinese companies are among Toshiba’s customers—and data centers.

Oh my! Yes, yes, Nintendo cannot make Switch units fast enough. We have read this same story again and again.

Now let me quote myself:

Can the Switch outsell the Wii? Certainly. Due to Switch’s mobile and personal nature, there will be multiple Switches per household. There was only one Wii per household. But there were multiple DS systems. I expect Switch to perform similar to DS… in terms of momentum. I do not think Switch will get to DS numbers due to different macro-economic realities.

Now let us read the story in the Wall Street Journal:

Some families are buying multiple units, treating them more like smartphones than living-room consoles because of the Switch’s portability.

Yukiko Amakawa, a 36-year-old homemaker in Fukuoka, Japan, said her family of four owns three Switches: one for herself; one for her husband to play on the train while commuting; and a third for their children, a 6-year-old boy and 3-year-old girl.

“I don’t want anyone touching my playing data,” she said. “While my kids play Mario Kart on TV, I play some other games on the Switch’s portable screen.”

I went as far back to January 13, 2017 to see what I said when the Switch was revealed. I thought the software launch line-up was great, that I was personally going to buy it, that it wasn’t going to be a Wii U disaster, but I didn’t think it would be a Wii level hit at first. The reason why I said that last part is because I was looking at the DS, and even after the reveal, I keep comparing the Switch to the DS in terms of market momentum. DS didn’t do Wii levels initially either, but it did so when it got the right software.

“How could you be wrong in not knowing Switch was a Wii level success, Malstrom? OMG!”

I hadn’t played Zelda: BoW “Wow!” yet. I assumed, incorrectly, Switch did not have all the software pieces needed to make a Wii or NES or DS phenomenon. But Zelda: BoW “Wow!” was the killer app needed. I didn’t know the game was going to be actually good. I thought we were in for a Twilight Princess level Aonuma type game.

The Switch is being treated by the market as the DS was. To those who didn’t understand why the DS was so successful, the DS became a type of home-portable hybrid console. People would play it a ton at home even over their home consoles which shocked even the gamers doing it.

Switch’s sales potential really depends on Nintendo’s production potential. What a strange place to be!

The macroeconomic situation of the United States and even Japan is beginning to improve. This will be good for ALL game consoles and the entire game industry.

Switch will pass 100 million units because Switch has more in common with DS than Wii.



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