“I told Nintendo that Switch wouldn’t be a success before it went on sale, because I thought that in the age of the smartphone, no one would carry out a game console. It’s obvious I was wrong. I came to realize the key to a successful game is quite simple: software with absolute quality leads sales of hardware. Playing style can be flexible if the software is attractive enough. Currently, it’s popular among the early adopters, but there needs to be one more step to attract a wider audience. I see more potential in Switch, but one shouldn’t overestimate its potential.”
There is a reason why Pokemon CEO is not CEO of Nintendo.
Now, let us go back to February 1, 2017 and listen to CEO of Malstrom Inc:
Nintendo doesn’t view smartphones as competitors. If they did, they wouldn’t be writing software for them. Instead, Nintendo views smartphones more as the TV of today. It is the screen everyone looks at.
Smartphones are to handheld game consoles as PCs are to home game consoles. PCs can play games too, but no one considers PC gaming a competitor to console gaming (unless you are Microsoft and Sony which puts out crappy PC hardware to connect to the TV and declare it a console). Iwata even began to use this comparison too.
When you view Switch from the context of the handheld market, there is nothing but optimism. First of all, Switch has no competition. This means all the handheld console game software will be coming to Switch. Since handheld gaming is biggest in Japan, that means all the Japanese third parties. Second, the 3DS became a success despite the ‘omg I can’t believe its not 3d!’ weight on its back of the 3d lens in the hardware AND competition from the Vita (whatever competition it may be). How is the Switch going to fail without any crappy hardware like the 3d screen or the Gamepad from the Wii U? And with NO competitors?
…to…
The software I see isolated here are the AAA games. They NEED the ‘power’ of the PS4 or PS5 to run. But indie games do not. Handheld companies do not.
Switch is in a better position than people think. Now that Nintendo has announced the pre-orders were good and that they will be ramping up production, people are regretting they didn’t pre-order and fell for the anti-hype of ‘DEAD ON ARRIVAL’.
But there was one voice that defied all that crap. “No. Switch will be successful.” Good ‘ol Malstrom had to set it right… again. Even my email box was full of people screaming about how terrible the Switch is and how Nintendo was doomed.
While the Switch will be unto itself, the closest console’s trajectory I can compare it to would be the DS. DS launched well with solid hardware (even though it got revamped, people loved how DS had the SNES button layout finally). The DS launch software was quite pitiful. But it was all turned around and the rest is history.
I thought Switch would be sell initially strong like the DS and as more software would come out, Switch would become more of a monster.
The problem is that we have no idea what Switch’s demand is because of lack of supply. I still stand by my small bull to big bull. I think Switch has bigger sales day ahead of itself.
But one game really catapulted the Switch.
“1, 2, Switch!” claps the reader.
No. It would be this game:
But how do you analyze this game? Well, we would have to look at this game:
But this game is part of the 8-bit generation. According to Game Industry Analysts, this generation doesn’t exist. To them, generation one is when the PlayStation came out. This… thing… came out in the Land Before Time.
Above: What the world looked like when the NES was released.
“Didn’t the NES come from Japan?”
“It doesn’t matter,” snorts the snotty Game Industry Analyst. “All countries were one of the same back then. Bahahahaha!”
Above: The 1980 Console World according to Game Industry Analysts
In order to understand the original Zelda, one has to look at arcade gaming and old school PC RPGs. But this is way beyond most people in the Game Industry.
However… what if I told you that many of these ‘break out hit’ big Industry games did so because their game director was obsessively a fan of an ‘ancient’ game?
We’re like in a Renaissance period where hot new hits are being made based off of seeing some of the ‘ancient wisdom’ of the 80s/90s gaming. Nintendo even sees this as the NES Mini and SNES Mini sell 100% of their supply. Why? The products are grossly underpriced.
But to truly understand the Switch success, we have to understand the Zelda BoW “Wow!” success. What made that game work? Analysts?
Above: *crickets*
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