Posted by: seanmalstrom | April 17, 2024

Email: Is Mat Piscatella the new Michael Pachter?

Hello, Sean!

I hope this is the right email address to write to.

You wrote:

“Now, I have not seen official sales numbers, but I am under the impression that the Nintendo Switch is a sales success and may, in fact, be the best selling game console ever made.”

https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/en/finance/hard_soft/index.html

Almost, but Nintendo DS is still number 1 as of December 31, 2023.

The statement is correct. Read it closer. …and MAY, in fact, be the best selling game console ever made.

The Switch lifecycle is not over. Just because Switch 2 comes out doesn’t mean people will stop buying the Switch either. No one knows how much the Switch will ultimately sell. So… it *may* become the best selling console. May…

But getting back to the point and context…

It made sense in 2005 to think Sean Malstrom was CRAZY for being bullish on Nintendo. Nintendo had three weak console generations in a row (SNES, N64, Gamecube) with only the strong NES which had no competition. Nintendo clearly couldn’t compete with PlayStation 3. And then Microsoft was bringing out their mighty Xbox 360!!!

I don’t blame anyone thinking I was crazy then. The surface data showed momentum with Sony and Microsoft and with Nintendo in nothing but decline.

But, today, the surface data doesn’t show that. What the surface does shows is…

Nintendo breaking records and doing gangbusters.

Sony’s PS5 disappointing and having a tepid market response.

Microsoft’s Xbox might as well disappear with how badly it is doing.

So WHAT IN ANY REASON could anyone conclude, “Nintendo is being stubborn by not following Sony and Microsoft’s direction.” Why on earth would a WINNER want to emulate the LOSERS???

You know why they don’t talk about the great CONSOLE WAR anymore and mock anyone who brings it up?

THEY LOST.

Back in 2005, nearly twenty years ago, the great Satoru Iwata said the Sony/Microsoft console direction was ‘not the way’. Nintendo was going to take a different approach, the Blue Ocean approach, and declared war against generalized disinterest itself.

“How is Nintendo doing what they’re doing?” No analyst asks that. Why not? Aren’t they curious? Why are we assuming that Microsoft’s ‘Cloud everywhere’ approach is The Way? Why are we assuming that Sony’s ‘port on PC’ approach is The Way?

Why don’t the analysts analyze the BEST SELLING consoles instead of analyzing the LOSING consoles? Why are analysts championing the LOSING STRATEGY of LOSING CONSOLE COMPANIES? Why aren’t analysts curious about the WINNING STRATEGY of the WINNING CONSOLE COMPANY?

“But there aren’t any winners and losers of console war!!!”

See? There you go again. There definitely is a market battle. If Sony or, especially Microsoft, was winning, THAT WOULD BE ALL THEY WOULD BE TALKING ABOUT.

They even now define console generations are not a thing. If they did, that would invite comparison to the Switch kicking their ass. You can’t have that.


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