Hello Malstrom,
Hope this doesn’t end up in your spam folder. I’m sure you are getting plenty of emails about Switch 2 sales. It sold 3.5 million in 4 days. I know we’re still in the Honeymoon phase, but there was something odd I noticed.
The same day, Nintendo announced a new Splatoon Spin-off on their Nintendo Today app. Even weirder is it doesn’t have a release date or even a release window. It’s mostly just a trailer. Why not show this during a Direct and why show it now? I’m wondering if maybe the reason Nintendo announced this game out of the blue alongside the announcement of their sales figures is that there may be something within the data that worries Nintendo. Perhaps Switch 2 sales were poor besides the bundle or they see people are already dropping Mario Kart (there have been a lot of disgruntled videos)
But I wanted to see what you think Malstrom. As the Nintendo whisperer, do you think the timing means anything? Any who, take care and good luck with your game!
What a nice email. Switch 2 sales are as I expected. I did say that the Switch 2 sales trajectory would be higher than Switch 1 when launch aligned. But that difference only means there is more momentum coming from Switch 1 userbase than Wii U userbase (talk about a difference! haha) and more stock at launch. I’m not sure if Switch 1 launched in as many regions as Switch 2 did. Nintendo always had a ‘rolling effect’ with their launches. I think Wii was the first time Nintendo launched in the major markets at the same time.
Killer app means a game that drives hardware sales. I’ve still seen no evidence that Mario Kart is that killer app. What I do see is evidence that Mario Kart has a very high attach rate. Mario Kart 8 is the same exact game on both Wii U and Switch. They both have high attach rates. And yet, Wii U sales were the Wii U sales. A true killer app would have broken that barrier.
People need to stop comparing the Switch 2 to home consoles. Switch 2 is a handheld. Wii U, including previous Nintendo home consoles, suffered from lack of real third party support. Switch 2 is going to behave more like Nintendo’s handheld sales. I’m thinking more a better launched 3DS than anything else. (Remember that Switch 1 didn’t have real third party support until a couple years in.)
3DS sold 4.5 million in its first year.
DS sold 2.3 million in its first year.
This is why you cannot rely on the initial launch numbers. Also, I do recall that Nintendo did not do a full global launch. They would get the major markets, but not the other ones. It is also my suspicion that Sony nails these non-aligned markets which causes a good increase to their total global sales count. For example, what are Nintendo console sales in China? In South America? In the Middle East? You get the picture.
Launch sales are the EASIEST sales to get. We won’t have an accurate picture of demand until early 2026. Fast sales at launch does not mean fast sales for five years. However, every analyst and console marketing company keep trying to flag that is the case when every generation cycle disproves it.
I think the Negative Youtubers just have egg on their face. The last time for a poor Nintendo release was the Wii U which was over a decade ago. Today, we know the Wii U was disastrous. But it was ‘known’ it was disastrous until a full year in. If these Youtubers had any life experience, they would have known this.
I did miss the Splatoon 3 Raiders announcement as I do not have Nintendo News App. It appears Nintendo is doing an experiment.
Back in the day, a genius move for NOA was to do Nintendo Power magazine. It was a direct line of Nintendo news and information to the consumer. One can cynically call it Nintendo propaganda, but if you look at the issues, you’ll find that the magazines were fighting disinterest. Information on how to PLAY the games and be GOOD at the games dominated the messaging. Also, comics and other fun maps and charts made the material entertaining in itself. Nintendo Power was a great companion piece to the 8-bit Era. It’s why you don’t see any of the old timers hate on it.
One thing the Nintendo Power and Nintendo Counselors did was receive invaluable feedback. Releasing information on the News app means Nintendo wants that direct line and wants that direct feedback. They do not want MY feedback for Splatoon Raiders.
I find that Nintendo Power was a work of art itself. An app is not the same.
Gamers made the mistake to think gamer magazines were designed to get news to them. That was not their purpose. Their purpose was to get gamers to the games. And this is what the news app is designed to do. It is to get the Nintendo News App user to the product.
I do not know how the demographics skew with the Nintendo News App. I’m old, so I don’t care about another app. But young people might feel differently.
Splatoon Raiders is in the very first step of its marketing. And the first target was Nintendo consumers. Since the spin-off is exclusive to Switch 2, it is Nintendo’s way to tell Splatoon fans that they need get ready to transition to Switch 2.
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