“I also think we are overestimating the new Xbox and PlayStation.”
I totally agree. I watched about half (or maybe less) of the PlayStation announcement, and I have to say, Sony looks to me like it’s afraid. I see no ambition in the PS4, but I see plenty of fear and conservatism. One of the things you’ve taught your readers to do is pay attention to what developers and executives say within a company (since that should indicate the direction of the console or the game). With the Wii, Reggie wouldn’t stop talking about core decline and disruption and blue ocean strategy. With Metroid: Other M, Sakamoto wouldn’t stop talking about “maternal instincts,” “Samus as a character,” and other garbage. These statements gave us an indication of specific directions Nintendo was taking.
I believe Sony is also giving us clear signs as to their direction. During the PlayStation conference, I noticed Sony’s speakers couldn’t stop talking about graphics (even though graphics were already a commodity all the way back when the Xbox 360 was released in 2005), social media, and “hardcore” gamers (or something like that). I kept wondering why Sony wouldn’t shut up about the graphics and the 8 gigs of RAM. That Atari guy (who I think made Marble Madness) used graphical terms on stage that I can’t even recite. Honestly, what does any of that matter? Who is even going to notice the difference between the PS3 and the PS4? I’m certainly not. Reggie’s statement from E3 2006 is as true as it ever was. Doing things just a little better works for a while, but ultimately it proves fatal. Sony is simply trying to do things a little better.
On top of that, Jack Tretton recently made some statements about “true” gamers buying the PS4 and that smart phone users will “migrate up the food chain” to become traditional triple-A console game players.
I think Sony is simply fleeing further upmarket. Their new controller is in fact the most complex controller they have ever released (similar to the Wii U’s GamePad being Nintendo’s most complex controller ever). Not only does it add a touch pad, but includes Move-like tracking with a new camera system, as well as some sort of social media buttons. If there’s one thing we’ve learned from the Sixaxis controller, it’s that you can’t simply cram the Wii’s controls into existing controllers and hope to expand the market. Yet Sony is making this mistake again.
I think Sony is very, very afraid of a core market fire from its PS3 customer base. It really is afraid of putting the PS Move technology in the forefront of its plans and trying to expand its user base beyond “true” gamers. Had Sony reworked the Move to be more appealing to the mass market, I would have considered Sony ambitious. Based on what I saw with the PS4 controller, they no longer need the glowing ball on the end (which is repulsive to the mass market) and can simply use a flat, glowing section, like so:
http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8233/8493772390_9edab1aa58.jpg
This means they could have reworked Move into more of a TV Remote shape and gone after the abandoned Wii customers. Had they done this, I might very well have purchased my first Sony console.
Microsoft has yet to show its hand, but I expect them to do the same thing as Sony. They’ll show off a new console and talk endlessly about its “impressive” graphics and social media features (trying to one-up Sony). They’ll show off a new, more complex controller (likely integrated with Kinect somehow). And they’ll talk about “true” gamers as well. But the one thing they won’t do is show off mass market games.
I see a huge decline coming in the console market. All three console makers are fleeing upmarket and ceding the low end of the market to… well, no one I guess. Nintendo mistakenly thought it could push reworked GameCube software/hardware on everyone with slick marketing, but it isn’t working. I don’t expect Sony or Microsoft to do any better. I expect $400 price points for the new consoles.
In Sony’s defense, they haven’t shown everything. We haven’t even seen the console yet. Post E3 will be a good time to see where all the console makers stand.
I think Sony is more interested in not having the costs that the PS3 had (CELL chip and all). In that context, I think the PS4 will be successful for Sony.
I’ve been very busy lately (and going to become even busier), but I honestly don’t give a damn about any game console coming out. I don’t think I’ve changed. It’s just that games seem like a waste of time especially now. They are also too expensive. They aren’t magical anymore.
Perhaps I’d rather just buy a sports car, cruise around with girls, and visit other countries. The appetite changes over time, perhaps?
But I wonder… allow me to present another hypothesis.
What if we’re all sick and tired of staring at a screen? Once upon a time, when gaming was new, computers were also new. It was a marvel seeing and interacting with stuff on a screen, either the TV or the personal computer. But the PC is now everywhere. The goddamn computer screen is all over the place.
It’s everywhere at work.
It’s now our TVs.
All our phones have it.
Our cars have screens.
Tell me, enlightened reader, how the hell can video games be special if a goddamn PC screen is everywhere?
Before PCs, we went to this thing called ‘arcades’ and PAID MONEY PER PLAY because video games were so amazing. When PCs came, we aimed more at home consoles. The further we go, the less interesting games became.
The Wii was interesting because you weren’t sitting watching the damn screen. You were moving around which was interesting. It was still a damn screen, but it was different.
I think future innovation in video games will be more than shoving a screen in a person’s face whether that screen be ‘more graphics’ or ‘our-controller-got-a-screen-now!’.
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